Analyze Bijan Robinson's matchup for week 9
Bijan Robinson is a clear sit in Week 9; the Falcons RB is trending down (8.3 and 2.8 PPR points the past two weeks) and faces the league’s No. 2 run defense that allows just 76 rushing yards per game and has not surrendered a 100-yard rusher all season.
The Patriots have held opponents to 413 rushing yards all year and just 12.6 fantasy points per game to RBs, and Atlanta’s uncertain QB situation plus projected negative game script could limit Robinson’s touches even further.
After a 19-carry, 170-yard explosion against Buffalo, Robinson’s volume and efficiency collapsed: 9 carries for 25 yards vs. Miami and 10 carries for 40 yards vs. San Francisco, translating to an 85% drop in fantasy output.
The matchup math is ominous for Robinson. New England’s front seven ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game (76), has surrendered only two rushing scores to backs all season, and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. With Drake Maye stabilizing the Patriots offense, Atlanta could fall behind early, forcing the offense into a pass-heavy script and limiting his carries to the 14-16 range. Add in the Falcons’ QB instability with Michael Penix Jr., and defenses have been able to stack the box and dare the rookie passer to beat them, further compressing Robinson’s efficiency. Combine that with his recent usage dip—from 19 carries in Week 6 to 9 in Week 8—and there’s little reason to chase upside here.
For fantasy managers banking on his receiving work, even that floor feels shaky. Robinson has averaged 3-5 receptions a game recently, but only managed 23 and 30 yards in the past two outings, and the Patriots have been solid against pass-catching backs, allowing only 4.2 receptions per game to the position. The Falcons may lean on short passing to keep Penix comfortable, but those touches are unlikely to offset the expected rushing inefficiency. A projection of 60-70 rushing yards with a 30% shot at a TD plus 25-35 receiving yards gives him a ceiling of roughly 15 PPR points, and that’s if everything breaks right.
Bottom line: Sit him unless waivers are barren in your league. Comparable or better options this week include Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. Atlanta), Kyren Williams (vs. New Orleans), or Chase Brown (vs. Chicago). The talent is undeniable, but Week 9 sets up as a perfect storm of negative game script, elite run defense, and declining usage—making Robinson a risky play best left on your bench.