Analyze Alec Pierce's matchup for week 9
Alec Pierce draws a dream matchup against a Steelers defense that’s hemorrhaging deep balls, making him a high-upside WR3/Flex with WR2 ceiling in Week 9.
Pittsburgh's secondary ranks 26th in yards per attempt on deep shots (20-plus air yards) and has given up the third-most fantasy points to WRs over the past five weeks. Pierce, who leads all qualifying receivers with 21.4 yards per catch, will see one-on-one opportunities as the Steelers focus on Michael Pittman underneath. The Colts' high-volume offense (30-plus PPG) and Daniel Jones' improved pocket time further tilt the field toward Pierce’s big-play profile.
Quiet but elite usage: 9.4 PPR PPG, WR-best 21.4 YPR, 21% target share and 59% air-yards share since returning from injury, and at least 4 targets in every game since Week 2.
Alec Pierce has quietly become one of the most reliable boom-or-bust WR3s in fantasy. His 59% air-yards share shows Shane Steichen is designing looks specifically for him to win vertically, and the Steelers have been fantasy kryptonite to opposing wideouts. Pittsburgh’s safety tandem has allowed seven completions of 40-plus yards over the last five weeks, and Pierce’s 4.4 speed gives him the vertical separation speed to exploit those busts. Even if the touchdowns haven’t arrived yet, the volume metrics scream regression: he’s on pace for 64 targets over eight games, and the Colts are top-five in pass plays of 20-plus yards. With Indianapolis implied for 28 points and Pittsburgh funneling targets to the perimeter, Pierce’s floor sits around 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards, while the ceiling is a 100-yard, multi-TD eruption. Add in a 70% roster-available rate across ESPN leagues and Pierce is the perfect bye-week antidote who could single-handedly swing a matchup if he finally converts his signature deep shots into six points.