Analyze Xavier Worthy's matchup for week 7
Start Xavier Worthy as a boom-or-bust WR3/flex; the Raiders’ burnable secondary and Mahomes’ hot streak outweigh Rashee Rice’s return, giving the rookie deep-threat a realistic shot at 60-plus yards and a score.
The Raiders have surrendered the 6th-most fantasy points to WRs and are especially vulnerable to explosive plays, aligning perfectly with Worthy’s 4.28-speed skill set. Kansas City is an 11.5-point home favorite with a 28-30-point implied total, so multiple touchdown opportunities should be available through the air. Even with Rashee Rice re-entering the mix, Worthy’s vertical role differs enough from Rice’s possession style to keep him on the fantasy radar in a game that profiles as a shootout.
After a zero-fantasy Week 1, Worthy has averaged 8.6 fantasy points over his last three outings, posting lines of 5-83, 6-42, and 2-20-1 while flashing 16.6 YPR on the season.
Worthy’s rookie year has been a roller-coaster, but the arrow is pointing up. Since his opening-week ghost, he’s commanded 21 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown, showing he can win both vertically and in the red zone despite a slight 5'11" frame. His target share has swung from four to nine looks per game, reflecting Kansas City’s evolving personnel, yet the efficiency metrics—most notably 12.8 yards per catch—underscore the upside that made him a first-round draft pick. Now he walks into a Week 7 spot that historically favors speed receivers: the Raiders have allowed 20 completions of 20-plus yards and rank bottom-10 in yards per attempt defensively. With Patrick Mahomes completing over 70 % of his passes and posting a 113.4 rating the past three weeks, the environment is ripe for Worthy to eclipse his 44.7-yard projection and potentially hit the 60-80 yard range with a score.
Rashee Rice’s return does cap target ceiling, yet it may actually help Worthy see softer coverage. Defenses will key on Rice’s intermediate routes and Travis Kelce’s middle-of-field work, leaving the speedy rookie in more one-on-one situations on the perimeter. Andy Reid’s offense has supported multiple fantasy-relevant wideouts before—think Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, or JuJu and Mecole Hardman—and the Chiefs’ 65 % pass rate inside the red zone this year means Worthy only needs one or two down-field connections to pay off. Projection models slot him as WR #15-16, but those algorithms historically underrate big-play wideouts in plus-matchups, especially when the home team is expected to score four times.
From a practical fantasy lens, Worthy is best viewed as a high-variance WR3/flex. His floor sits around five fantasy points if the deep shots don’t connect, yet his ceiling is a two-catch, 90-yard, two-touchday day that wins weeks. In standard or half-PPR formats where the Raiders’ 28.5-point implied allowance supports a 1.5-TD median for Kansas City pass-catchers, that 15-to-20-point upside is worth chasing over safer but lower-ceiling options like Jakobi Meyers or Josh Palmer. Start him with confidence, monitor how the target tree shakes out post-Rice, and be ready to sell high in dynasty if he pops this week—because a productive performance would cement his role as the Chiefs’ designated field-stretcher for the rest of 2025.