Analyze Travis Kelce's matchup for week 7
Start Kelce as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2; the Raiders’ league-worst TE defense (5.2 FPPG) keeps his floor safe even with Rashee Rice returning to siphon targets.
The Raiders have bled 5.2 PPR points per game to tight ends (25th) and already surrendered three TE touchdowns. Arrowhead noise should help Kelce win the middle, but Rashee Rice’s Week 7 return caps the upside that once made Kelce automatic. Expect 4-6 targets, 40-50 yards, and a 30–40 % red-zone TD probability.
After a 47-yard, 1-TD opener, Kelce has been volatile—78 yards vs DET, 61 and a score vs JAX, but only 11.5 Y/R and target counts swinging between 4 and 8.
Father Time is winning: Kelce’s 28-321-2 line through six weeks would be a career year for most tight ends, yet it’s a 50 % drop-off from his peak. His 11.5 Y/R and disappearing 4-target games show a player now winning with route craft, not burst. Still, the Raiders’ linebackers and safeties have been a charity for opposing TEs—42.2 yards and 0.2 TDs per contest—so even a version of Kelce that wins late and wins short can exploit them. Rice’s reinstatement will relegate Kelce to situational work: third-down stick movers, red-zone stacks, and scramble-drill trust throws. That role is enough for 6-7 half-PPR points this week, with a ceiling of ~15 if he finds pay-dirt twice. Dynasty managers should view this as the last ride of every-week TE1 status; redraft managers should keep firing him up while the matchup is this plush and pivot only when the schedule stiffens or the Chiefs’ bye arrives.