Analyze Tony Pollard's matchup for week 7
Pollard’s snaps, carries and efficiency have cratered, Tennessee’s offense is historically inept and New England allows the 8th-fewest YPC—bench him unless your alternatives are dire.
Tennessee’s offense ranks dead-last in yards (232.3) and points (13.8) while New England surrenders only 83.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 YPC (8th). With Calvin Ridley likely out and rookie QB Cam Ward scuffling, the Patriots can stack the box against a back who’s lost two fumbles and averaged 3.9 YPC (34th among qualifiers). Pollard’s snap share fell to 0% in Week 6 and his carries have dropped from 20-plus to just 10, signaling the Titans themselves are reducing his role.
After opening with 92 yards in Week 2, Pollard has regressed every week, bottoming out at 34 yards on 10 carries in Week 6 while playing zero snaps by some metrics; his 10.5 PPG ranks RB32.
The underlying usage data is more damning than the raw stats. A running back who cedes nearly every snap in a given week is not commanding coaching trust, and the Titans have responded by trimming his touches in four consecutive games. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz has increasingly turned to passing downs back Julius Chestnut and even fullback Tory Carter in key spots, indicating Pollard is no longer viewed as a true three-down weapon. Add two lost fumbles—already matching his 2024 total—and you have a player whose own staff is managing around rather than through.
Scheme-wise, the matchup is equally toxic. New England operates out of a multiple front that funnels runs inside to 320-pound nose tackle Davon Godchaux and rangy linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai, who’ve combined for 28 run stops. The Patriots’ secondary is comfortable playing single-high looks, keeping an extra hat in the box and forcing backs to win against stacked fronts. Pollard’s 3.9 YPC versus eight-man boxes is the NFL’s fifth-worst rate (min. 25 attempts), and Tennessee’s interior offensive line—already down starting center Lloyd Cushenberry��has generated just 0.78 yards before contact per carry, 30th in the league. Expect frequent second-and-longs that lead to predictable passing downs and cap Pollard’s already-shrinking touch floor.
From a game-script standpoint, the Titans are 8.5-point home underdogs with a team total of 14.5 points, the lowest on the Week 7 slate. Negative scripts historically depress early-down rushing volume and push offenses toward pass-catching backs, yet Pollard has only eight targets on the season and played fewer than 20% of third-down snaps last week. If New England builds a multi-score lead, Tennessee will be forced to abandon the run entirely, turning Pollard into a touchdown-or-bust bench stash. Given his declining red-zone usage—he’s handled just three of the team’s last 10 goal-line carries—banking on a score is speculative at best. In 12-team leagues with any semblance of depth, safer flex options with independent receiving roles (think Bucky Irving, Ray Davis or even a returning Zack Moss) offer both higher floors and equivalent ceilings.