Analyze Rico Dowdle's matchup for week 7
Dowdle has turned two career games into every-week starter territory; even if Chuba Hubbard returns, Dowdle’s 84 % backfield touch rate, elite efficiency metrics and a middling Jets run defense make him a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside in Week 7.
New York’s run defense sits 19th in DVOA and has surrendered the 14th-most RB fantasy points, a neutral-to-favorable draw for a back who just ripped off 389 yards at 7.3 YPC over his last two outings. Dowdle’s 67 % snap share and 41 % route participation give him a three-down floor, while the Jets’ tendency to allow explosive runs keeps his ceiling intact.
After averaging 3.2 YPC through Week 4, Dowdle has posted consecutive 180-plus-yard games, handled 84 % of RB touches and ranks top-10 among qualifiers in explosive-run rate and missed tackles forced.
From a season-long lens, Dowdle profiles as the league-winning waiver find of 2025. His 84 % dominator rating over the last two weeks is on par with workhorse backs who were top-20 picks in August, and the Panthers’ remaining schedule (vs. NO, at NYG, vs. LV) offers only one top-10 run defense after Week 7. If you need a tiebreaker, the revenge narrative lingers—he was cut by Dallas after five years and has now hung 206 and 183 total yards on his last two opponents. Momentum, usage and matchup all align, making Dowdle a rare post-bye starter you can set and forget until further notice.