Analyze Michael Mayer's matchup for week 7
With Brock Bowers likely out, Mayer is the Raiders’ clear TE1 against a Chiefs defense that ranks 5th-most generous to the position; expect 5-6 targets and a solid floor with red-zone upside.
Kansas City has surrendered 23-27 targets to tight ends (4.0 FPPG) and struggles in the red zone, while Mayer’s role spiked to a season-high 7 looks last week. The Raiders are 7.5-point dogs, so negative game-script should keep Mayer involved throughout.
Since returning from a concussion Mayer has caught 5-of-7 balls for 50 yards and a TD—his best line since 2023—and his 78.6% catch rate leads the team’s pass-catchers.
Mayer’s second-year breakout stalled in 2024, but Week 6 felt like a re-launch: he ran a route on 72% of drop-backs, out-snapped backup Jesper Horsted 48-to-13, and converted both of his red-zone targets. The chemistry with Geno Smith was obvious on film—Smith looked for Mayer on stick and snag concepts when pressured, a tendency that should continue with the Chiefs’ interior blitz packages. Kansas City plays split-safety at the eighth-highest rate, funneling underneath throws to tight ends, and their linebackers (Nieman, Chenal) have allowed 1.89 yards per coverage snap, fourth-worst per PFF. If Bowers (knee) is inactive, Mayer becomes the every-down TE and keeps the Raiders in 12-personnel, a look they used on both of his career touchdowns. Expect 4-5 receptions, 40-45 yards, and a 35-40% chance of a score—numbers that play as a mid-range TE1 in a week filled with byes and injuries.