Analyze Kenneth Walker's matchup for week 7
Walker gets a soft Texans front that’s coughing up 103.5 rush yards and a TD per game to RBs, yet a near-even timeshare with Zach Charbonnet and zero red-zone love keep his floor scary low; fire him up only as a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Houston’s run defense ranks 23rd in yards per game (103.5) and has already surrendered four rushing scores to backs this year, setting up a paper-perfect on-paper matchup. The problem is Seattle’s backfield is now a 50/50 split—Walker played just 35% of the snaps in Week 6 while Charbonnet handled 60% and saw six red-zone carries to Walker’s two. Even with explosive-run juice (3rd-best explosive-run rate, 2nd PFF rushing grade), Walker needs a single missed tackle to turn 10 touches into a house call or he’ll repeat last week’s 3.7-point dud.
Since peaking with 19 carries in Week 4, Walker’s usage has dropped every week—culminating in a season-low 10 carries and 3.7 fantasy points at Jacksonville—while Charbonnet eats into both early-down and goal-line work.
The Texans’ defensive line has been leaky to explosive runs, giving up 4.16 yards per carry and a league-average 1.0 rushing TD per game to backfields. That should play directly into Walker’s elite tackle-breaking skill set; he sits 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 3rd in explosive-run rate, so a single crease on Monday night could produce a 40-yard house call that salvages his line. Unfortunately, game script could swing pass-heavy—Houston’s secondary is equally vulnerable and Seattle may opt to attack through the air, further capping Walker’s touch count. Even if the game stays neutral, Charbonnet’s creeping red-zone usage (six carries inside-the-20 last week) means Walker needs to hit a home run from outside the 20 or fall into the end zone on one of his projected 10–12 touches. In standard leagues that reward long TDs, that risk is acceptable; in full PPR the floor is a sub-10-point landmine. Treat Walker as a low-end RB2/FLEX with a 9–12-point projection and clear bust potential if the Texans contain explosives or if Seattle simply opts for an aerial script.