Analyze Keenan Allen's matchup for week 7
Allen’s targets have stayed steady, but his efficiency and red-zone usage have cratered (8.7 YPR, 0 TDs in Weeks 4-6). Against a middling Colts pass defense that still limits splash plays, the 33-year-old profiles as a low-upside, touchdown-dependent flex who is safer on benches in standard and shallow PPR formats.
Indianapolis enters Week 7 allowing 232.8 passing yards per game (22nd) and ten WR touchdowns on the season, but no receiver has topped 100 yards or scored twice against them. Their modest pass rush (0.8 sacks per game) should give Justin Herbert time, yet the Colts’ zone coverages have kept big plays in check, making this a neutral-to-slightly-favorable but not exploitable matchup for a declining outside wideout.
After three touchdowns in his first three games, Allen has gone scoreless while averaging 40.7 yards on 4.7 catches over his last three, ceding down-field work to Quentin Johnston and showing clear age-related dip in yards-after-catch.
The underlying numbers paint a sobering picture for a player who was an every-week WR2 just a season ago. While Herbert is projected for a solid 251 yards and 1.8 touchdowns this week, the Chargers’ redistribution of pass-game equity has left Allen as a short-area safety valve. His average depth of target has fallen below 8 yards for the first time in his career, Johnston and the tight ends are handling the high-leverage red-zone looks, and Allen’s 8.5 targets per game are producing barely 10 PPR points of output—an efficiency rate that sits outside the top-60 receivers. The Colts’ pass defense is nominally beatable, but they have limited receivers to the fourth-fewest 15-plus-yard completions and have not surrendered multiple touchdown passes to any individual wideout this year. Even if Herbert approaches his projection, the scoring equity is far more likely to flow through Johnston or the tight ends, leaving Allen dependent on a rare red-zone fade or a busted coverage for his first touchdown in a month.
Age-related decline is evident beyond the box score. Allen’s yards-after-catch per reception (2.1) is nearly half his 2023 figure, his separation rate versus man coverage has dropped 15%, and the Chargers have reduced his snap share in three straight games to keep him fresh. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has acknowledged the need to “pick spots” for the veteran, a coaching euphemism for phased-out usage. Meanwhile, Indianapolis DC Chris Hairston has deployed Cover-3 on 54% of snaps, a shell designed to keep everything in front and force quarterbacks into horizontal throws—exactly the type of scheme that has limited Allen to pedestrian stat lines this season. Even if Herbert dinks and dunks his way to 250 yards, the probability that Allen converts a short crosser into six points remains low.
Fantasy managers searching for upside should look elsewhere. Jakobi Meyers gets target volume against a sieve-like Saints slot coverage, Trey McBride has a 25% target share over the last month, and deep-league streamers such as Rashid Shaheed offer big-play juice against a generous Titans secondary. Allen’s median outcome—five catches, 55-60 yards, and a 30% chance at a touchdown—caps his ceiling at flex territory, and his floor becomes waiver-wire fodder if the Chargers build an early lead and lean on the run. Until he recaptures red-zone usage or rediscovers yards-after-catch burst, he belongs on benches in standard leagues and is no better than a desperation flex in 12-team PPR setups.