Analyze Josh Downs's matchup for week 7
Josh Downs has elite per-route usage (26.7% target rate) and draws a Chargers slot defense that bleeds WR fantasy points; start him confidently as a high-end WR3 who could finish top-25 this week.
The Chaders rank 20th in WR points allowed and play man coverage at the 8th-highest rate—Downs’ 32.4% target rate vs. man is 13th-best among WRs. With Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack out, Daniel Jones will have time to find Downs in the slot against backup-caliber nickel corners. Indianapolis uses 3-WR sets 68% of the time, so even with Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren demanding attention, Downs’ underneath role keeps his floor safe while the matchup gives him a ceiling.
Back-to-back six-catch games, rising targets every week (3→7), first 2025 TD last week, 95.2% true catch rate and 2.70 YPRR vs. man.
Josh Downs is quietly assembling a league-winning profile. After an early-season dip that caused many fantasy managers to bail, he’s rattled off consecutive six-catch performances and scored his first touchdown in Week 6. The underlying usage is even better than the box score: he’s earning a target on 26.7% of his routes (14th among all WRs) despite playing only 54.9% of snaps, indicating the Colts are deploying him in high-leverage passing situations rather than every-down volume. That efficiency spike coincides with growing chemistry with Daniel Jones, who trusted Downs on a tight-window touchdown throw against Arizona and has increased his looks weekly.
The matchup with Los Angeles is borderline dreamy. The Chargers’ pass rush is gutted—no Bosa or Mack—so Jones should enjoy a clean pocket that allows multiple progressions, a must for slot receivers who win on option routes. L.A. plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate, and Downs’ 32.4% target rate versus man ranks 13th at the position. Derwin James can’t simultaneously bracket Pittman and Warren while also helping over the slot, leaving Downs in one-on-one situations versus replacement-level nickel corners. Add in the Chargers’ 20th-ranked WR fantasy points allowed, and the path to a ceiling game is clear.
Target competition exists—Pittman is the alpha and Warren’s seam-stretching emergence actually helps by pulling safeties—but the Colts’ 68% 3-WR frequency and Steichen’s spread-the-wealth design give everyone room to eat. Downs’ 8.3 aDOT isn’t a bug; it’s by design, maximizing YAC in space created by the outside weapons. Expect seven targets, five grabs, a short touchdown, and roughly 17 PPR points—numbers that could vault him into weekly-WR2 territory for the rest of the season.