Analyze Jonnu Smith's matchup for week 7
Jonnu Smith gets a dream paper matchup versus an Indianapolis defense that bleeds TE production, yet his 25-69% snap share, 5.2 YPC, and crowded Pittsburgh TE room keep his floor terrifyingly low; treat him only as a desperation bye-week streamer.
The Colts have surrendered the 3rd-most TE fantasy points and consistently allow above-average outings to the position, but Pittsburgh’s run-heavy attack (29th in pass attempts) caps target pie. Smith must also compete with Darnell Washington’s 80% snap rate and Pat Freiermuth for looks behind alpha WR DK Metcalf.
After a 2024 breakout (88-884-8, TE4), Smith’s 2025 Steelers tenure has cratered: 17-89-1 on 20 targets, 5.2 YPC, and two games under 30% snaps while managing a hip issue.
Jonnu Smith’s 2025 campaign illustrates how quickly a tight end’s value can evaporate when usage and scheme turn against him. Last year’s top-five finish was built on 88 receptions out of a Dolphins offense that funneled short-area targets to the position; in Pittsburgh, Arthur Smith’s ground-and-pound approach has reduced Smith to a part-time, chain-moving role. His 25% snap rate in Week 4 is the red-flag floor, and even the recent bump to 69% against Cleveland came with only three targets. The hip problem that landed him on the injury report all preseason lingers, limiting in-line reps and red-zone usage—historically the two areas where Smith’s elite after-catch strength can shine.
The Colts matchup, however, is genuinely inviting. Indianapolis has allowed at least 14 PPR points to opposing TEs in four of six games, including two touchdowns to backup-level talents. Their linebackers have struggled with lateral speed, and Cover-3 looks have left the seam open. If Pittsburgh falls behind—the Colts average 34.3 PPG—Big Ben successor Mason Rudolph could be forced into 35-plus attempts, theoretically raising Smith’s target floor into the 5-6 range. The problem is that Darnell Washington remains the primary inline blocker, while Pat Freiermuth handles most two-minute work. Smith’s routes run per snap remain under 50%, so even a positive game script might not translate to consistent looks.
Fantasy managers should weigh that capped ceiling against a brutal floor. Smith has yet to top 35 yards in a game this year, and his 5.2 YPC indicates he’s not creating yards after contact the way he did in Miami. Touchdown variance is his only realistic path to a top-12 weekly finish, and the Steelers’ red-zone run rate (4th-highest) lowers that probability. Unless you’re staring at a complete zero due to byes (Kelce, Andrews, Kittle are all off), the prudent move is to leave Smith on the wire and stream a higher-volume option like Taysom Hill, Dalton Kincaid, or even Tyler Conklin. Smith’s talent and matchup are tantalizing, but without a role expansion—something the coaching staff has shown no inclination to do—he’s a lottery ticket you can’t trust in season-long lineups.