Analyze Jaylen Waddle's matchup for week 7
With Tyreek Hill out, Waddle has become Miami’s alpha, averaging 8+ targets and 84+ yards the last three weeks; Cleveland’s sieve-like secondary (4th-most WR fantasy points allowed) makes him an auto-start with 16-point upside.
The Browns have hemorrhaged 135.2 WR yards and 1.4 WR touchdowns per game while surrendering 12.5 YPR and multiple 40-yard completions. Waddle’s 15.8 YPC over his last two tilts and Tua’s rekindled Alabama chemistry set up a ceiling week.
Two 17-point outings in his last three, target share up to 8-9 per game, 3 TDs in five weeks—he’s ascending at the exact moment Miami needs a WR1.
Jaylen Waddle’s transformation from sidekick to centerpiece began the instant Tyreek Hill’s knee gave out. Over the subsequent three weeks Waddle’s target share jumped from 18 % to 31 %, his aDOT climbed above 12 yards, and he’s averaged a robust 2.34 yards per route—top-10 territory. The Browns’ coverage woes amplify every one of those trends. Defensive coordinator’s quarters-heavy scheme has been picked apart by motion and play-action, two staples of Miami’s post-Hill attack. Cleveland has allowed a league-worst 92.3 passer rating on deep passes outside the numbers—precisely where Waddle wins with stacked releases and 4.3 speed. Factor in positive game-script expectation (Miami 3-point road favorites) and a 46-point over/under, and the stage is set for 8-10 targets, downfield chunk gains, and a score. Regression data also favors Waddle: he’s underperformed expected touchdowns by 1.4 this season, and the Browns have surrendered a TD on 18 % of WR targets inside the 20. Start him as a top-12 wide receiver in all formats; the floor is 12 PPR, the realistic ceiling is 25, and the probability of a dud is under 10 % given volume and matchup.