Analyze Jaxson Dart's matchup for week 7
Denver’s league-best pass rush (30 sacks, 44.6% pressure rate) and thin air make this a nightmare spot for the rookie; sit Dart in all formats.
Jaxson Dart has been efficient through three starts (65.9% completions, 4 TD, 2 INT, 167 rush yds), but the Broncos’ ferocious front and altitude present a perfect storm. Without a full-strength receiving corps and facing a defense that has held four of six QBs under 15 fantasy points, the matchup screams avoid.
Production has dipped each week—34 total points the last two games and 2 INTs last week—while the offensive line is springing leaks at the worst possible time.
Denver’s defense isn’t just good—it’s historically disruptive through six weeks. The 30 sacks and 44.6% pressure rate both pace the NFL, and the Broncos have racked up five-sack outings in four separate games. Against a rookie quarterback in his fourth start, that pressure is almost certain to translate into drive-killing plays and turnovers. Add in the mile-high altitude that affects ball flight and stamina—two variables rookies struggle to adjust to on the fly—and you have a recipe for a fantasy disaster.
Offensively, the Giants aren’t built to insulate Dart. The ground game has been middling, ranking 18th in rush DVOA, so Denver can pin its ears back. Darius Slayton’s potential absence would leave Dart throwing to a depleted wide-receiver room against a secondary that’s top-10 in completion percentage allowed. Even Dart’s rushing upside—he’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry—takes a hit against a linebacker corps that’s allowed the sixth-fewest QB rushing yards. In total, the implied team total for New York sits below 17 points, underscoring how bleak the scoring environment projects.
From a game-script standpoint, expect Denver to jump ahead early, forcing Dart into obvious passing downs where Bradley Chubb and Nik Bonitto can hunt. Historically, rookie QBs facing top-five pressure defenses on the road average 0.8 TD passes and 2.3 turnovers, numbers that align with our projection of 165 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Streaming veterans like Gardner Minshew or Baker Mayfield offers both a higher ceiling and a safer floor, making Dart an easy sit in redraft, dynasty, and SuperFlex formats alike.