Analyze Geno Smith's matchup for week 7
Geno Smith has thrown 10 INTs in six games as a Raider and now heads to Arrowhead for a divisional matchup; start him at your own peril.
The Chiefs know Smith’s tendencies from division battles and will force him into mistakes in the league’s loudest venue. Arrowhead’s pressure cooker, combined with Kansas City’s opportunistic secondary, sets up a brutal environment for a quarterback already on pace for 28-plus interceptions.
A free-fall: 2 TD/7 INT over his last three games, multiple picks in three of the last four, and a passer rating stuck in the 70s.
Geno’s move to Las Vegas has produced a turnover avalanche—10 interceptions versus just seven touchdowns through six weeks, including back-to-back multi-pick games before a modest rebound against Tennessee. The underlying metrics are uglier than the 66 % completion rate suggests: he’s averaging only 225 yards per game, taking sacks at key moments, and posting a 77.6 passer rating that ranks in the bottom third of qualifiers. The offensive line has allowed quick interior pressure, forcing Smith into rushed decisions and telegraphed throws, issues that get magnified against division opponents who have faced him twice a year since 2022.
Arrowhead Stadium is a house of horrors for visiting quarterbacks, and the 2025 Chiefs defense is finally healthy along the secondary. Kansas City is blitzing on 38 % of third-down snaps, generating a 30 % pressure rate that has translated into eight interceptions in their last four home games. Steve Spagnuolo’s pattern-matching coverages bait quarterbacks into forcing balls over the middle—exactly where Smith has thrown six of his 10 picks this season. On film, the Chiefs have bracketed intermediate routes while keeping safeties high, daring short-area throws and then rallying to tackle; that approach neutralized similar quarterbacks like Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill earlier this year.
From a fantasy lens, Smith’s floor is terrifyingly low: he’s yet to finish better than QB20 in road starts and has scored under 13 points in four of six games. Even if Vegas falls behind and abandons the run, garbage-time production is no guarantee; Kansas City’s ball-control offense can bleed clock, and the Raiders’ own defense keeps games close enough to prevent full-scale desperation mode. Unless your league is two-QB or super-flex and waiver options are barren, virtually any streaming target—think Gardner Minshew vs. Arizona, Mac Jones vs. Washington—carries a safer ceiling and a higher probability of positive touchdown regression. Bench Smith and don’t look back until he strings together turnover-free weeks.