Analyze Elic Ayomanor's matchup for week 7
With Calvin Ridley sidelined, the rookie moves into a de-facto WR1 role against a Patriots defense that bleeds points to perimeter receivers, but his 50 % catch rate and Tennessee’s anemic offense keep the floor dangerously low; he’s a desperation flex with TD-dependent upside.
New England has surrendered the 5th-most PPR points per target to outside WRs, and Ayomanor’s 29 % air-yard share and 18.5 % target share should get funneled into his lap with Ridley out. The Titans are 6.5-point home underdogs, so negative game-script could push Cam Ward to 35-plus attempts, yet the Pats’ CB duo of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis limits the ceiling and the rookie’s 13.8 % drop rate invites volatility.
Two top-36 weeks to open the year (WR24, WR27) have devolved into 2.3-29.7 per game over the last three, driven by a 50 % catch rate and four drops on 29 targets; the usage metrics (18.5 % targets, 29 % air yards) remain stable, but production has cratered from 15.6 fantasy points in Week 2 to 2.7 in Week 6.
Opportunity is the entire argument: Tennessee’s depth chart is so thin that Ayomanor is projected for a 34 % chance to score — the highest of any Titans pass-catcher — and his 13.1 aDOT keeps the big-play window open. The problem is execution; his true-catch rate of 70 % still translates to only 50 % actual catches because of contested-ball inconsistency, and an offense averaging 13.8 points per game can’t support multiple fantasy-viable weapons. New England’s 17.8 points allowed per game is middle-of-the-pack, but they’ve allowed perimeter touchdowns in four straight weeks, so the matchup paper advantage is real. Expect 3-4 targets, one or two explosive shots, and a stat line that lives or dies on whether one of those shots finds the end zone. In 14-team leagues or DFS GPPs that volatility is palatable; in 10-12-team formats with even moderate alternatives the risk-reward calculus tilts firmly to the bench.