Analyze DeVonta Smith's matchup for week 7
Smith’s elite 82.9 % catch rate and slot-heavy role collide with a Vikings defense that ranks 26th and bleeds yards to inside receivers, making him a high-floor, high-ceiling WR3 play.
Operating from the slot on 58 % of his snaps, Smith will face a Minnesota defense that’s played single-high at the sixth-highest rate (58.3 %) and allowed the fourth-most yards per target to slot WRs. With A.J. Brown commanding top coverage, Smith gets rookie CB Mekhi Blackmon in the slot and a safety duo that’s surrendered 11 completions of 20-plus yards over the last four games.
Back-to-back 8-114 outburst in Week 5 followed by a quiet 4-49 on five targets in the short-week Giants game; still boasts an 82.9 % catch rate and a 27.7 % first-read share.
The Eagles’ passing game is quietly humming at 7.9 yards per attempt over the last three weeks, and Smith’s 2.35 yards per route run during that span ranks 11th among WRs. Minnesota’s primary slot corner, Blackmon, has allowed 14 receptions on 17 targets for 189 yards and two TDs in his last four games, and when the Vikings rotate to zone, Smith’s elite spatial awareness and option-route savvy should create easy pitch-and-catch opportunities for Jalen Hurts. Expect 6-7 targets, a 70 % catch probability on each, and a red-zone look inside the 15 where Smith’s refined release package has already produced three scores in his last 17 games. The floor is five grabs for 60 yards; the ceiling is a 100-yard, one-TD eruption if the game script stays neutral and Philadelphia keeps its 62 % pass rate on early downs that we’ve seen in road contests this year.