Analyze David Montgomery's matchup for week 7
With Jahmyr Gibbs active, Montgomery’s touches have cratered (4 carries last week) and a stingy Bucs front (3.6 YPC allowed to RBs) plus brutal home splits (3.5 YPC) make him a low-floor, low-ceiling play—bench him if you have any reasonable alternative.
Tampa Bay is giving up just 67.6 rushing yards per game to backs on 3.63 YPC and only 0.6 rushing TDs, but they’ve been generous through the air (51.4 receiving yards to RBs). Unfortunately Montgomery’s usage is collapsing—his carries have dropped from 18 to 9 to 4 the past three weeks—while Gibbs’ return threatens both early-down and pass-down work. Detroit is a 4-point favorite, so positive game script is possible, yet Montgomery’s 3.5 YPC at Ford Field this year and the Bucs’ top-seven interior front seven spell trouble for a volume-dependent runner who’s no longer seeing volume.
After opening the year averaging 5.7 YPC and 12+ carries through Week 3, Montgomery has fallen to 3.6 YPC and just 4 carries for 24 yards in Week 6 as Jahmyr Gibbs ate into his snaps.
Montgomery’s 2025 season has been a volatility masterclass: a 151-yard, 2-TD eruption on MNF in Week 3 was followed by a 12-yard Week 4 dud and a 4-carry ghosting in Week 6. The underlying driver is usage, not talent—his carries have fallen in three straight games (18-9-4) as the Lions pivoted toward the more explosive Gibbs. Add a home/road split that strongly favors road games (5.9 vs 3.5 YPC) and a Buccaneers defense that ranks top-eight in rushing success rate allowed to backs, and Montgomery needs a goal-line plunge to return starter value. With Gibbs back to full health and Detroit likely to deploy more 11 personnel on the fast track indoors, Montgomery’s touch projection sits in the 6–9 range with limited pass-game juice. Unless your alternatives are injured or on bye, the risk of another single-digit floor outweighs the modest touchdown probability—look for streamers in plus matchups (Atlanta, Houston, Cincinnati) instead.