Analyze Cooper Kupp's matchup for week 7
Kupp’s 5.3-target, slot-dependent role behind JSN caps his ceiling; Houston’s middling WR defense keeps the floor low, making him a bench stash unless you’re desperate.
Houston’s secondary sits 10th in WR fantasy points allowed (22.4 per game) and yields 29.5 yards per game to the position, but they’ve been average against the slot—exactly where Kupp runs 65% of his routes. The Texans don’t scare you off the position, yet they’re stingy enough that volume, not matchup, is the issue. Seattle’s pass game funnels through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (56 targets to Kupp’s 32), so even on Monday Night Football Kupp projects for another 5-6 looks and a 50-60-yard ceiling unless he finds pay-dirt.
Four straight games under 60 yards, one TD in six weeks, and only one 16-point spike (Week 2) show a declining, touchdown-dependent profile.
Kupp’s 2025 tape screams secondary option: 32 targets through six games, a 67% catch rate that pads PPR floors but no 20-plus-yard receptions since Week 2. His 1.78 yards per route run ranks 62nd among WRs and his aDOT (6.8 yards) highlights a dink-and-dunk role that lacks explosive juice. Houston runs man coverage at the 10th-highest rate, which traditionally favors technicians like Kupp, but without pre-snap motion or condensed formations Seattle hasn’t manufactured the free releases that once made him a target monster. Add in a 17% red-zone target share (third on his own team) and the TD luck he finally found in Week 6 looks like an outlier.