Analyze Chase Brown's matchup for week 7
Bench Chase Brown on Thursday night; a fully healthy Steelers defense, negative game-script, and a season-long timeshare have crushed his volume and efficiency, making even low-end RB3 numbers unlikely.
Pittsburgh returns from its bye at full strength—Highsmith, Porter Jr., and Ramsey are back—boasting the league’s top pressure rate and the NFL’s best sacks-plus-takeaways mark (6.0 per game). Cincinnati is a 5.5-point home underdog with an implied 19.5-point total, a recipe for double-digit deficits and a 67% pass rate when trailing. The Bengals’ offensive line remains a bottom-five run-blocking unit, while Brown’s snap share has fallen to 54% with Samaje Perine vulturing goal-line work.
RB12 a year ago, Brown has failed to hit his weekly projection once in 2025, averaging 5.3 points below expectation while watching his snap share dip under 55% and his rushing success rate rank dead-last among qualifiers.
Pittsburgh’s defensive renaissance undercuts any hope of a bounce-back. They limited Cleveland’s backs to 2.4 yards per carry in Week 5 and now face a Bengals offense that has trailed by double-digits on nearly half its snaps, the highest rate in football. When Cincinnati falls behind, it abandons the run entirely, dropping to a 33% rush rate, a death knell for a volume-dependent runner who has not recorded a single red-zone carry inside the 5-yard line since Week 2. Add in an offensive line that grades 30th in adjusted line yards and a quarterback in Joe Flacco averaging 4.9 air yards per attempt, and running lanes will be non-existent.
Game-script projections are equally bleak. The Steelers’ league-best pressure rate (38.5%) should force quick throws, limiting Brown’s target share—already a modest 11% team share—to check-downs behind a line that has allowed the third-most blown blocks on screen passes. Even if Brown sees 12–14 touches, Pittsburgh’s run defense has surrendered just one rushing touchdown to backs this season and ranks top-five in fantasy points per carry allowed. With Perine handling all goal-line and two-minute work, Brown’s ceiling caps around 40 scrimmage yards and a stray reception, a 5-point outcome that carries more downside than upside.
Long-term, the schedule softens—eight of Cincinnati’s final ten opponents sit bottom-12 in rushing fantasy points allowed—but that optimism belongs to trade-deadline strategists, not Week 7 lineups. Until the offensive line improves or the Bengals prove they can stay within one score, Brown profiles as a bench-only asset whose name value no longer matches on-field opportunity. Sit him Thursday and re-evaluate only when the matchup, game-script and snap share align, something unlikely to occur before a Week 10 date with Jacksonville.