Analyze Cade Otton's matchup for week 7
Otton has averaged 5.3 targets over his last three games and draws a Lions defense that’s allowed a league-high 16.2 PPR PPG to TEs; with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka banged-up, he’s Baker Mayfield’s clear No. 2 option and is a safe, high-floor TE1 stream Monday night.
Detroit has been obliterated by athletic tight ends, surrendering 6 TDs to the position and a 37% above-average PPR output. The Lions’ linebackers have struggled in coverage and their split-field safeties have been late providing help, creating the same middle-of-field void Mark Andrews exploited for 91-2 earlier this year. With Tampa projected as 4.5-point ‘dogs in a 52.5-point total, expect plenty of pass volume and quick-hit targets to Otton, who should avoid most of Aidan Hutchinson’s rush by releasing immediately.
Career-best usage: 12-141 on 15 targets the last three weeks, season-high 22 looks in Week 6 and a 48% route rate show he’s now a receiver, not a blocker, in an injury-ravaged pass game.
Opportunity plus matchup equals production at tight end, and Otton checks both boxes emphatically. Over the last three weeks only four NFL tight ends have more targets than his 15, and with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka all limited or out, Otton has become Baker Mayfield’s primary chain-mover on third down and inside the red zone. Detroit’s linebackers — primarily Jack Campbell and the injured Alex Anzalone — have allowed 78% completion rate when covering tight ends, and their split-safety looks have left the intermediate middle open all season. Because the Buccaneers are expected to trail, Mayfield will keep the ball moving quickly to his big-bodied security blanket, giving Otton an exceptionally safe 4-6 target floor. The touchdown upside is real as well: the Lions have allowed a TE score in five of six games, and Otton has already handled six red-zone targets over the last month. Even if Aidan Hutchinson wreaks havoc, the ball will come out fast to the tight end, mitigating pass-pro concerns. In a position starved for both certainty and ceiling, Otton offers a rare Week 7 combination of both and profiles as a top-12 option at the position.