Analyze Bam Knight's matchup for week 7
Knight’s red-zone role and rising snap share keep him in low-end FLEX consideration, but Green Bay’s league-best run defense (73 yds/gm, 3.4 YPC) caps yardage and makes him a touchdown-or-bust play.
Green Bay arrives allowing the fewest rushing yards in football and only three rushing scores all year; their interior front stonewalls power concepts—Knight’s specialty—yet the Pack rank 23rd in red-zone TD rate, leaving a razor-thin path for Knight to pay off via the short plunge he’s converted in back-to-back weeks. Arizona’s 6.5-point underdog status should keep the ball in Knight’s hands if game script flips negative, but Kyler Murray’s questionable foot puts the entire offense on shakier ground.
Scratched Week 1, Knight has since climbed to a 37-snap lead in Week 6 while scoring touchdowns in consecutive games; his 86.7 % positive-yardage rate and 13.3 % rushing-TD rate show a decisive, physical runner who’s now the preferred goal-line option over Michael Carter.
Knight’s ascension is real—Arizona has re-ordered its backfield pecking order around his physical, downhill style and willingness in pass pro. The 13.3 % touchdown rate on carries is elite territory typically reserved for 250-touch workhorses, yet Knight has achieved it on just 30 rushing attempts, underscoring how heavily the Cardinals lean on him inside the 10. That usage is sticky: Kliff Kingsbury’s staff values his ability to finish through contact and avoid negative runs, two traits that keep drives on schedule for an offense starved for chunk plays. Against most opponents that profile would push him into weekly RB2 territory, but Green Bay’s front seven is a different beast. Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt have combined for a 92.1 run-defense grade per PFF; they lead a unit that’s surrendered one rushing first down every 7.8 carries—best in football—and has yet to allow a runner 60 yards in a game this season. Power/gap concepts that Knight excels in are averaging 2.7 YPC versus the Packers, so yardage will be hard to come by between the tackles. Where Knight can still deliver fantasy value is inside the 20. Green Bay’s red-zone touchdown rate sits at 64.3 % largely because teams have reached it only 14 times; when they do, they’ve punched it in on the ground at a 55 % clip, the fourth-highest rate in the league. If Arizona can string together a pair of long drives—something they did twice in Week 6—Knight is the locked-in ball carrier for any inside-zone or duo look at the 3-yard line. The other path to production is through the air. With Kyler Murray questionable, backup Jacoby Brissett’s conservative nature historically funnels targets to backs (career 22 % target share to RBs). Knight’s 66.7 % catch rate and 16.5 YPR show he can capitalize, and Green Bay has allowed 6.2 receptions per game to enemy backfields. In PPR formats that gives him a modest 3–4-point receiving floor that, when paired with a 40 % chance of a touchdown, pushes him past the 10-point FLEX threshold roughly 38 % of the time—comparable to other low-end options like Gus Edwards or Ty Chandler this week. Ultimately you’re betting on one or two goal-line carries and maybe a check-down screen salvaging a usable line; if that touchdown doesn’t hit, a 5-25-0 rushing day is the median outcome. For rosters gutted by byes or injuries that risk is acceptable; for anyone seeking stability, safer volume-based plays exist on most wires.