Analyze Alvin Kamara's matchup for week 7
Despite facing a Bears defense that’s hemorrhaging 164.5 rushing yards and 6.05 YPC per game, Kamara’s dwindling volume, 3.1 YPC over his last two outings, and five-week scoreless streak relegate him to a risky low-end FLEX in PPR and a sit in standard formats.
Chicago’s run defense has been historically bad, ranking dead-last in yards per carry allowed (6.05) and 29th in rushing yards per game (164.5), while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. Kamara’s secure receiving role (5.5 targets per game) aligns perfectly with a Bears unit that’s already given up 121 receiving yards and 3 TDs to backs, yet his own efficiency collapse and New Orleans’ 1-5 record create a tug-of-war between matchup upside and usage downside.
Kamara’s last four games show declining rushing efficiency (2.3, 4.7, 3.4, 3.1 YPC) and zero touchdowns since Week 1, while his carries have dipped to a season-low 8 in Week 5 and his snap share is ceding ground to rookie Kendre Miller.
The matchup paper advantage is undeniable: Chicago’s front seven has been a revolving door, allowing massive lanes that even below-average backs have exploited for chunk gains. Kamara’s pass-catching security blanket keeps his PPR floor afloat—he’s averaging 4.4 catches per game and the Bears have leaked three receiving scores to RBs—but the Saints’ tank-adjacent season outlook, Kamara’s persistent ankle issue, and his career-worst 3.1 YPC over the past month indicate explosiveness has evaporated. New Orleans has no incentive to grind a 30-year-old starter into the ground, so expect another 12–15 touch cap with goal-line vultures looming. In standard leagues, a touchdown is mandatory for relevance and he hasn’t crossed the pylons since Week 1; in full PPR he’s a volume-based FLEX who could fall into 60 total yards and 5 grabs, but bank on anything more at your own peril.