Analyze Zay Flowers's matchup for week 11
Zay Flowers draws a top-15 WR matchup against a Browns defense that’s hemorrhaging 125 WR yards and 1.25 WR TDs a game; with Lamar Jackson back he owns a 28 % target share and elite 2.42 YPRR, making him a locked-in WR2 with WR1 upside.
Cleveland enters Week 11 ranked 20th in PPR points allowed to wideouts (32.7 per game) and has already surrendered 10 WR touchdowns. Their perimeter corners have struggled against separators who win in the short-to-intermediate game—exactly Flowers’ wheelhouse. In the two games since Jackson’s return, Flowers has commanded a 28 % target share and 3.29 YPRR versus the blitz, numbers that project favorably against a Browns unit that blitzes at a top-ten rate but has only four healthy corners on the active roster.
Since Lamar Jackson re-entered the lineup Weeks 9-10, Flowers has averaged 5.5 catches and 69.5 yards on 6 targets per game, leading Baltimore in targets in both contests and posting back-to-back 15-plus-yard aDOT plays.
Flowers’ 2025 profile is that of a true alpha: 28 % target share, 33 % first-read share, 2.42 yards per route run—all elite marks—yet he hasn’t scored since Week 1 despite seeing a team-high nine deep balls. Positive touchdown regression is inevitable, and the Browns’ sieve-like perimeter coverage is the perfect elixir. Cleveland has allowed 125 WR yards per game and ten WR scores, the latter tied for fourth-most. Their top outside corner has been limited with a hamstring, and the safety rotation has given up five completions of 25-plus yards over the last three weeks. Flowers, who averages 11.4 yards per target on deep crosses and posts from the slot, can exploit the intermediate void vacated by Cleveland’s two-high looks. Add in Jackson’s 112.3 passer rating when targeting Flowers on third down and the Ravens’ 31 % target rate for Flowers versus the blitz, and you have a floor of six grabs and 70 yards with legitimate multi-touchdown upside. Weather is the lone minor flag—winds could gust to 15 mph on the lakefront—but the forecast is dry and the Ravens’ fast indoor-like turf speed travels. Fire up Flowers as a top-20 WR with a ceiling inside the top-10 this week.