Analyze Zach Ertz's matchup for week 11
A 34-year-old security blanket for Jayden Daniels, Ertz draws the league’s 2nd-most TE-friendly defense in Miami, guaranteeing 8+ targets and strong red-zone odds—plug him in as a low-end TE1 with a rock-solid 17-point PPR ceiling.
Miami has bled 11.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends (63-714-7 on 78 targets), and the Commanders’ scheme funnels steady volume to Ertz when opponents play zone. With Terry McLaurin commanding top coverage, Ertz will run the bulk of his routes against LBs and spot-duty safeties who have struggled to close passing windows in the middle of the field. Expect Daniels to lean on his veteran early in downs and inside the 20, where Ertz already owns 7 TDs this year.
Since Week 6 Ertz has averaged 8.2 targets and 0.7 TDs per game, but just 7.8 YPR and 3.0 YAC—he’s now a possession-dependent, catch-and-fall asset whose scoring spike keeps him in the every-week starter conversation.
Ertz’s 2025 profile is a masterclass in aging gracefully: 66 receptions on 91 targets through nine games shows command of the short-area route tree, while his 7 touchdowns (4th among TEs) prove Jayden Daniels still trusts him implicitly inside the 20. The catch-depth dip to 7.8 yards over the last five outings underscores reduced YAC juice (3.0 per grab), but Washington’s offense funnels 25% of its red-zone looks through him, creating a bankable scoring floor against a Dolphins defense that has permitted multiple TE touchdowns twice already. Miami’s primary coverage LB duo has combined for a 118.3 passer rating allowed when targeted, and their Cover-3 looks leave the intermediate middle exposed—precisely where Ertz wins with subtle option sits and delayed releases. Expect 5-6 grabs, 55-65 yards and a score, good for ~17 PPR points and a comfortable top-12 positional finish in Week 11.