Analyze Xavier Worthy's matchup for week 11
Worthy’s 4.21 speed squares off with the NFL’s 30th-ranked WR defense that’s allowing 19.4 fantasy points per game to the position, making him a high-upside FLEX with WR2 ceiling in Week 11.
Denver’s secondary has been torched for 117 receptions, 1,237 yards, and a league-worst 2 TDs to opposing wideouts, while Worthy has carved out a steady 3.25 catches per game since Week 6 and is finally seeing full-time snaps. The Broncos’ bottom-third deep-pass defense and inability to contain quick, athletic receivers set up perfectly for Worthy’s elite vertical and after-catch juice.
Averaging 3.3 grabs over his last four and playing a season-high share of snaps, Worthy is turning early-season flashes into reliable weekly involvement in Andy Reid’s attack.
The rookie first-rounder’s usage arc is pointing up at the exact right time. Over the last month he’s logged 79% of the offensive snaps, run a route on 85% of Mahomes’ drop-backs, and seen a 17% target share—numbers that dwarf his September usage. That growing trust matters more than the modest stat lines, because it signals Reid is ready to unleash the 4.21-speedster when the paper matchup says to attack. Denver plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate but owns the league’s second-worst completion percentage allowed on 15-plus-air-yard throws; Worthy leads KC wideouts in deep targets per route since Week 6. With the Chiefs implied for 27 points in a game that should stay competitive, the stage is set for 5–7 looks and multiple shots 20-plus yards downfield.
Fantasy managers often overthink rookie volatility, but Worthy’s profile is exactly the kind that smashes in plus matchups: elite speed to turn one missed jam into six, an ascending target tree, and an MVP quarterback who’s thrown 22 TDs against just 5 picks versus Denver since 2018. The Broncos’ slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian has allowed 14.2 YPR and 3 TDs in his last four games, and Worthy has run 43% of his routes from the slot over the last month. Even if Denver brackets Rashee Rice or doubles Travis Kelce in the red zone, that vacated middle is where Worthy’s speed crosses face for easy pitch-and-catch scores.
Weather and a run-heavy script are the only real risks—Denver’s altitude can sap ball carry, and Kansas City might lean on Isiah Pacheco if they grab a two-score lead. Still, the Chiefs’ pass rate over expectation jumps to +9% on the road this year, and Worthy only needs one target to pay off his weekly ranking. In 12-team leagues he’s a top-40 WR with a ceiling inside the top-20, and in best-ball or DFS tournaments he’s an ideal leverage play against a secondary that’s hemorrhaging chunk plays. Lock him into lineups as a high-upside WR4/FLEX and enjoy the blow-up potential.