Analyze Woody Marks's matchup for week 11
Woody Marks is a solid FLEX start in Week 11 against Tennessee after ripping them for 119 yards and two TDs in Week 4; his 16-touch floor, growing snap share (49% last week) and Titans’ 16.6% receiving-yards-to-RBs rate give him a safe 12-15 PPR-point projection.
Marks faces a Titans defense he already dominated in Week 4, piling up 21 touches for 119 combined yards and two scores. Tennessee has tightened since, but still ranks 11th-most generous to RBs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points and bleeds receiving production to backs. Houston is a slight home favorite, projecting run-friendly scripts, and Marks has out-snapped Nick Chubb 49%-35% the past two weeks, securing the 1A role in a rising Texans offense.
Four straight games with double-digit carries, 16 total touches in Week 10, and three consecutive weeks of 3+ targets; explosive-run rate of 4.5% and 2.18 yards after contact show growth beyond blocked yards.
The arrow is unmistakably up for the fourth-round rookie. Since Week 7 Marks has averaged 14.7 carries and 3.3 targets while playing nearly half the snaps, converting volume into a steady 11.7 PPR points per game. His Week 10 usage—14 carries, 2 catches, goal-line touchdown—mirrors the profile that produced 21 touches against Tennessee earlier this year, and the coaching staff’s growing trust suggests that ceiling is repeatable. The offensive line remains middling, but Marks’ quick-processing style and 4.5% breakaway rate mitigate that concern, while his 77th-percentile college target share hints at untapped receiving upside.
Tennessee’s run defense has stabilized since early season, yet underlying metrics remain exploitable. They allow 4.3 yards per carry over the last month and have given up six rushing scores in that span. More importantly, 16.6% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to backs (eighth-highest), a direct pathway for Marks to pay off even if between-the-tackles work is inefficient. Expect defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson to keep extra hats in the box, but Marks’ usage in motion and option routes should earn him 3-4 high-percentage receptions, padding his floor.
Project him for 65 rushing yards, 3 catches for 22 receiving yards, and a 40% touchdown probability—good for roughly 13 PPR points. That slots him as a low-end RB2/high-end FLEX who can survive a low-scoring slugfest or spike into the low-20s if he punches in another short score. Start him with confidence over boom-or-bench options and bye-week fill-ins who lack his touch security and proven ceiling against this specific opponent.