Analyze Tyrone Tracy's matchup for week 11
Coming off the bye with Cam Skattebo lost for the year, a healthy Tyrone Tracy steps back into a 15-20-touch role with minimal 2024 wear; the Giants’ shaky offense caps the ceiling, but the guaranteed volume and fresh legs make him a solid RB3/Flex start.
The Giants return from their bye with Tracy installed as the clear RB1 after Skattebo’s season-ending ankle injury in Week 8. Tracy’s 45 career carries leave him one of the freshest lead backs in football, and the extra week of prep should restore the burst he flashed in Weeks 1-3 (103-yard, 1-TD outing vs. Washington). Tampa Bay’s league-average run defense and New York’s still-rebuilding offensive line keep this from a smash spot, yet the promised workload—especially in negative game-script check-downs—gives Tracy a safe 12-point PPR floor with multi-TD upside if the Giants find the end zone.
Arrow pointing up: only 45 carries through eight games, no competition for touches, and a chip-on-the-shoulder narrative after losing the job to injury.
Volume is king at running back, and Tracy now has it in spades. With Skattebo on injured reserve, the second-year back is projected for 15-20 touches a game—territory that immediately places him in the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation regardless of opponent. The low 2024 mileage (45 carries) means his legs are essentially September-fresh while every other back is dragging November wear, a hidden edge that often shows up in second-level burst and fourth-quarter production. Add in his capable pass-catching—he was targeted 12 times in the three games before the shoulder injury—and you have a back who can stay on the field in all situations, protecting that touch floor even if New York falls behind.
Concerns are real but mostly contextual, not talent-based. The Giants’ offensive line ranks bottom-five in adjusted line yards and 31st in stuffed rate, so 40 % of Tracy’s carries could be met in the backfield. Daniel Jones’ turnover issues also keep scoring opportunities scarce for a 2-8 team. Still, game script can be a friend to Tracy’s PPR value: when the Giants trail, they funnel quick perimeter throws and check-downs to the RB, a role Tracy handled at Iowa and flashed in limited 2024 usage. Expect 4-6 targets if Tampa builds a lead, turning a rocky rushing matchup into a serviceable 15-18-point PPR ceiling.
From a seasonal lens, Tracy is a classic post-bye buy-low. Most fantasy managers see the 2-8 record and remember the shoulder-induced disappearance; they haven’t priced in the guaranteed workload, healed shoulder, and rested body. Week 11 is the runway game before a Week 12 date with a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the seventh-most RB receptions, making this the perfect spot to plug Tracy in and potentially sell high after a 20-touch outing. Bottom line: start him as an upside RB3 in all formats and ride the fresh legs through the fantasy playoff push.