Analyze Tyler Allgeier's matchup for week 11
Allgeier’s touchdown-only profile aligns perfectly with a home date versus a soft Carolina run defense that has surrendered five RB scores and ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed; expect 8-12 carries and multiple red-zone cracks, making him a boom-or-bust FLEX in standard formats.
Atlanta is a 6.5-point favorite at home against a Panthers offense averaging 11.3 PPG over the last month, setting up a positive script that should funnel extra volume to the ground game. Carolina’s front seven has given up 4.3 YPC and three rushing touchdowns to backs the last four weeks, and their red-zone efficiency (68% TD rate allowed) is bottom-ten. With Allgeier commanding five of the Falcons’ six carries inside the 20 in Week 10—and all three rushing TDs since Week 7—the matchup and game flow both tilt toward another goal-line spike week.
Scored in two straight, owns all three ATL rushing TDs since Week 7, and out-carried Bijan Robinson 5-to-1 in the red zone last week.
The Falcons have morphed Allgeier into a touchdown-only specialist, a role that sounds limiting until you realize he keeps delivering. His six rushing scores are tied for fifth among all backs despite never topping 14 carries in a game, and the coaching staff keeps feeding him inside the five—his seven carries from the one-yard line are second only to Derrick Henry league-wide. Carolina’s run defense isn’t a bottom-barrel unit, but the Panthers’ linebackers struggle to fill gaps against power looks (22 missed tackles the last three weeks), and their preferred light box invites extra goal-line attempts. Add in a banged-up Carolina offense that sustains drives only 28% of the time, and Atlanta should enjoy short-field opportunities. Allgeier’s floor is zero if he doesn’t score, yet the probability of 2-3 red-zone touches against a defense that has allowed a rushing TD in four of its last five games tilts the risk-reward calculus toward starting him in non-PPR formats. Expect 35-45 rushing yards and a 40-50% chance of a touchdown—enough to justify a FLEX slot if your team build can absorb the variance.