Analyze Trevor Lawrence's matchup for week 11
Trevor Lawrence is a clear sit in Week 11 against a Chargers defense that has allowed just 132 passing yards per game over their last three while generating 12 sacks and a 61.1 opponent QB rating.
The Chargers enter Week 11 as one of the NFL's hottest defenses, surrendering only 197 total yards and 40 points combined across their last three contests. Their pass defense has been especially suffocating, holding quarterbacks to 4.8 yards per attempt and a 55.4% completion rate while racking up 12 sacks. Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, is mired in a slump with sub-64% accuracy and 6.4 YPA over his last three games, and Jacksonville’s offensive line figures to struggle against Los Angeles’ aggressive edge rush.
Lawrence has regressed sharply, completing fewer than 64% of his passes and averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt over the past three weeks while posting a single touchdown and a declining red-zone touchdown rate.
The underlying numbers paint a bleak picture for Lawrence. His sack rate has crept toward 6% as pocket poise wavers, and the Chargers’ defense is specifically constructed to exploit that weakness—12 sacks in three games, a 7.3% rate of 20-plus-yard completions allowed, and a league-best 4.8 yards per attempt surrendered. When pressured, Lawrence has forced throws into coverage, a recipe for turnovers against a secondary that has feasted on errant passes. Downfield chemistry with Brian Thomas Jr. is neutralized by Los Angeles’ two-high shells that keep everything in front, and short-area efficiency has evaporated for Jacksonville as routes fail to uncover versus tight man coverage.
Game-script concerns further depress fantasy upside. If Jacksonville falls behind early, the offense can’t lean on a ground game to protect Lawrence, exposing him to obvious passing downs where Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack pin their ears back. Even in neutral scripts, the Jaguars’ red-zone woes lower touchdown probability; Lawrence has thrown only two RZ touchdowns in his last four games, and the Chargers have permitted just three TD drives in their last 36 opponent possessions. Without scrambles or designed runs to pad floor, Lawrence’s fantasy output hinges entirely on volume, and volume figures to come with inefficient yardage and heightened interception odds.
Finally, schedule context matters for roster management. Week 11 is the last bye week for many leagues, so viable one-week streamers like Gardner Minshew (vs. TEN) or Derek Carr (vs. NYG) offer considerably higher ceilings. In two-QB or superflex formats where every point is precious, Lawrence’s projected 12-14 range is replaceable, and his capped upside means he can’t swing a matchup. Bench him now and reassess once Jacksonville’s offensive line is healthier and the schedule softens down the stretch.