Analyze Treveyon Henderson's matchup for week 11
Henderson is a locked-in RB2 with RB1 ceiling: the rookie finally has the backfield to himself, the Pats are rolling, and the Jets have bled big plays to RBs all year.
New York’s front seven has been a sieve since Week 4, ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed, 27th in yards after contact per attempt and dead-last in stuff rate. On a short-week road game with an 0-6 record and dwindling juice, the Jets are tailor-made for Henderson’s breakaway speed. Expect New England to ride its hottest hand early and often, keeping Drake Maye in manageable down-and-distance while the clock keeps ticking.
After eight weeks of 31 yd/g and one TD, Henderson detonated in Tampa for 147 yd and two long scores on 14 carries, earning 10.5 YPC and the clear lead role with Stevenson/Jennings banged up.
Henderson’s 55- and 69-yard touchdowns weren’t flukes—they were textbook examples of the vision, patience and 4.3 burst that made him a second-round pick. With Rhamondre Stevenson limited by a toe issue and Terrell Jennings exiting with a knee injury, the rookie handled 14 of 17 RB carries and played 68% of the snaps, a season-high. That usage should hold: HC Jerod Mayo called the performance “exactly what we drafted” and OC Alex Van Pelt has already talked about “riding the hot hand” on Thursday night. Offensive line health also aligns: the starting five that paved the way for 195 team rushing yards in Tampa is intact, giving Henderson the creases he needs to reach the second level.
From a schematic standpoint, the Jets play a lot of single-high looks to load the box against the run, but poor safety play and missed tackles have produced the third-most 20-plus-yard runs allowed (six) since Week 4. LB C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams both grade below 55 in PFF tackling, and slot corner Michael Carter has missed nine tackles in the last four games—exactly the type of space Henderson exploited in Tampa. New York’s 31st-ranked stuff rate means if he gets past the first wave, he’s into the third level quickly. Game script projects favorably: New England is a 7.5-point favorite with a 24.5-point implied total, so positive game flow should keep carries in the 15-18 range even in a short-week environment.
The only real knock is sample size—one elite game does not guarantee consistency—but the underlying usage, matchup and coaching rhetoric all point to sustained production. Henderson doesn’t need 20 touches to return RB1 value; his home-run equity turns 12-15 carries into 80-120 yards and a 40% touchdown probability against this defense. Fire him up as a top-15 option with legitimate top-five upside in Week 11.