Analyze Travis Kelce's matchup for week 11
Even at 36, Kelce’s 77 % catch rate and 17.7 % target share keep his floor elite; he already hung 6-99 on this same Bills defense in Week 9 and projects for another 5-58-1 line, making him a clear start despite Buffalo ranking 2nd-tightest vs TEs.
Buffalo has surrendered just 3.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends, but those numbers came against mostly middling talent; when these teams met three weeks ago Kelce roasted them for 99 yards on six grabs. With 17-mph winds forecast, expect a short-area, timing attack that funnels targets to Mahomes’ most trusted option.
Over his last four games Kelce has averaged 6 catches and 73 yards, posting a season-high 99 yards in Week 8 and maintaining a 12.8 YPR that shows the chemistry with Mahomes is still intact.
The box score says Kelce is on pace for only ~75 receptions and his third straight sub-1,000-yard season, yet the underlying usage remains elite: a 19 % target rate when he runs routes and a 17.7 % share of all Chiefs passes. Those numbers, plus a 77 % catch rate, illustrate why his floor is still the highest among tight ends. In Week 9 he proved this Bills defense—while statistically stout—can still be solved by elite TE play when he turned ten targets into 99 yards. The rematch sets up similarly: windy 48-degree weather should push Mahomes toward quick, high-percentage throws, the exact routes that have made Kelce a Hall-of-Famer. Game script also projects positive with Kansas City likely throwing to keep pace, and the return of Rashee Rice hasn’t cannibalized targets the way drafters feared. Dynasty managers can worry about 2026, but redraft and DFS players get at least one more stretch-run from the position’s safest option. Expect five grabs, 55–65 yards and a red-zone look that gives him a 40 % chance to score, numbers that easily outclass every TE outside the top-three tier.