Analyze Tetairoa Macmillan's matchup for week 11
McMillan is a locked-in WR2 this week against a Falcons defense that has bled fantasy points to wideouts all year; his 8–10 targets and 3-reception floor keep him safe in PPR while the matchup gives him a shot at WR1 upside.
Atlanta has been one of the softest fantasy matchups for opposing WRs in 2025, giving up big plays and consistent volume production. When these teams met in Week 3, McMillan drew eight targets and turned them into three grabs for 48 yards, numbers he should improve on now that he’s fully settled into the Panthers’ passing attack. The Falcons’ secondary still lacks a true shutdown option, so McMillan will run routes against a corner group that ranks middle-of-the-pack in yards per target and has allowed 14 WR touchdowns already this season.
The rookie has hit at least three catches every game, piling up 46-618-2 on 77 targets through nine weeks, and he’s seen 8+ looks in five of his last six despite playing through a minor hamstring issue in Week 10.
Tetairoa McMillan’s profile screams reliable floor with sneaky ceiling this week. His 77 targets on the year translate to a hearty 27.9% team share, and Carolina’s run-first philosophy hasn’t stopped him from commanding 8–10 looks most weeks because he’s the clear first read in obvious passing situations. The Falcons’ zone-heavy scheme has been picked apart by intermediate timing routes—exactly where McMillan wins with quick separation and after-the-catch juice. If Carolina falls behind and is forced to throw, his volume could spike into the 12-target range, giving him the same weekly ceiling that has produced several top-15 WR finishes for opposing Atlanta wideouts this year.
The matchup numbers back the narrative: Atlanta is allowing the 8th-most WR fantasy points per game, has surrendered 40+ WR receptions in the last four weeks alone, and ranks 27th in explosive pass rate allowed. McMillan’s average depth of target sits at 11.8 yards, right in the sweet spot between the Falcons’ linebackers and safeties, so expect coordinator Thomas Brown to scheme him into motion and bunch sets to create free releases. Even in a neutral or positive game script, McMillan’s target floor keeps him startable; the Panthers have thrown on 61% of their red-zone snaps when within the 15-yard line, and he’s handled 32% of those targets over the last month.
Bottom line, you’re getting a rookie who’s already a volume magnet, facing a defense that funnels production to his position, with no shadow coverage on the horizon. Fire him up as a high-floor WR2 who carries legitimate WR1 upside if the game stays competitive or Carolina leans pass-heavy in the second half.