Analyze T J Hockenson's matchup for week 11
Hockenson’s 9-target, 8-catch eruption in Week 10 confirms he’s back as Minnesota’s second read behind Justin Jefferson; Tennessee’s paper-tight TE numbers are misleading—the Titans bleed middle-field throws to volume tight ends—making Hockenson a locked-in TE1 in a thin position.
Tennessee enters Week 11 having surrendered the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (328), but that stat is misleading—they’ve allowed the sixth-most catches (42) and have been repeatedly beaten on quick-hitting middle-field routes, the exact area where Hockenson wins. With Minnesota likely to emphasize short, timing throws to protect a shaky quarterback, Hockenson’s 15.4% target share since returning projects to another 8-plus looks. The Titans have also permitted a TE touchdown in three of their last four games, boosting his scoring probability.
After missing the first seven games while rehabbing from December knee surgery, Hockenson’s usage has spiked each week: 2-13-0 in Week 9 → 8-72-0 on 9 targets in Week 10. His 22.2% target share in that span ranks second on the team, and his snap share jumped from 61% to 78%, signaling full health and full trust from Kevin O’Connell.
Volume is king at tight end, and Hockenson is one of only a handful at the position averaging more than seven targets per game since Week 9. The Vikings’ passing offense funnels through Justin Jefferson first and Hockenson second—no other player has cleared five targets in either of the last two weeks—so his weekly floor is cemented. Even with Sam Darnold mired in turnover trouble (six giveaways in Weeks 9-10), quarterbacks historically lean on tight ends as security valves when pressured; Tennessee’s blitz rate sits eighth-highest (35.8%), creating quick-throw scenarios that benefit Hockenson’s intermediate route tree. If rookie J.J. McCarthy ultimately starts, the rookie’s scouting report from training camp emphasized a propensity to target his tight end on option and play-action concepts, further raising Hockenson’s ceiling. Add in the game’s 24th-ranked TE schedule remaining after this week, and you’re not just starting him in Week 11—you’re holding him as a top-six positional option the rest of the way.