Analyze Quentin Johnston's matchup for week 11
Johnston’s target share has collapsed to 17.7 % of routes (70th among WRs) and he’s seen only 15 looks in the last four games; against a middling Jaguars secondary he’s still fourth in the pecking order behind McConkey, Gadsden and the quick-pass scheme—making him a high-risk, low-floor bench.
Jacksonville’s pass defense is exploitable to vertical threats, but the Chargers have pivoted to a rapid-release attack that has slashed Johnston’s aDOT and snap share. With Ladd McConkey commanding the slot and Oronde Gadsden emerging at tight end, Johnston profiles as a situational deep shot who will need a broken play or touchdown to return value.
After a 37-target opening month, Johnston has totaled 15 targets in his last four games, ceding routes and red-zone looks to McConkey and Gadsden; his TD-dependent 15.3-point Week 10 line masked a 4-53-1 stat set built on only five targets.
The underlying usage is the death knell: Johnston has run 70 % of the snaps just once since Week 5 and Herbert is releasing the ball in 2.3 seconds on average, neutering the 50-50 vertical throws that defined Johnston’s draft pedigree. Even with Mike Williams gone, the Chargers are funneling 23 % of targets to the backfield and 19 % to tight ends, leaving Johnston fighting for scraps against a crowded WR corps. Jacksonville plays single-high at the sixth-highest rate, theoretically opening deep sidelines, but Johnston’s average depth of target has fallen from 14.8 in September to 8.2 since Week 7, turning him into a low-aDOT jump-ball receiver who needs perfect play design to score. Until Los Angeles commits to condensed formations that force targets to outside X receivers, Johnston’s weekly ceiling is a single splash play and his floor is a goose egg—unplayable outside 14-team leagues or MFL formats where you start five wideouts.