Analyze Noah Fant's matchup for week 11
Fant is a volatile TE1 dart-throw against a Rams defense that ranks 14th vs. tight ends and has surrendered five TE TDs this year; start him if you need upside, bench him if you require a safe floor.
The Rams enter Week 11 allowing 9.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends (14th-most) and have already coughed up 50-431-5 on 69 targets. Fant’s 4.67 speed and 6'4" frame exploit a linebacker corps that has leaked multiple TE touchdowns in recent weeks, while Seattle’s increased 12-personnel usage under Klint Kubiak should keep Fant on the field. The quarterback switch to Sam Darnold has not hurt TE looks—Darnold has historically targeted the position inside the 20—so the matchup sets up as a plus-on-paper spot for a player who hung 5-63-1 on this defense in 2024.
Fant’s 2025 line sits at 48-500-1 on 62 targets through 10 weeks, good for TE15 in YPR (10.4) but TE31 in TDs. Target counts have swung wildly (2–6 per game) and he’s topped 50 yards only twice, though his 5.9 YAC/rec and just 2 drops hint at efficiency when called upon.
Fant’s usage volatility is the dominant narrative: he’s seen fewer than four targets in half of his games yet averages 10.4 YPR when the ball does arrive, creating a ceiling/floor gap that mirrors the tight end wasteland itself. Against Los Angeles, that volatility collides with scheme-based opportunity. The Rams play man-coverage at the sixth-highest rate, leaving linebackers Troy Reeder and Christian Rozeboom isolated in space; both grade sub-60 in coverage per PFF and have combined to allow 38 catches on 45 targets for 389 yards and 4 TDs to TEs. Seattle counters with motion-heavy 12-personnel on 31% of snaps since Week 7 (fourth-most), forcing those same LBs into coverage or bringing a third safety into the box—either path funnels targets to Fant and Dissly. Add in a 24th-ranked red-zone defense (64% TD rate) and Fant’s 6'4" frame becomes a matchup problem inside the 20, especially if Darnold looks to the TE immediately off play-action. The counter-argument is snap share: Fant has played fewer than 70% of offensive snaps three times in the last five weeks, capping his probability of a 6-plus-target outing and making him game-script dependent. Still, the median outcome projects 4–5 looks, and one broken tackle against this specific LB corps could turn a quiet 3-35 day into the 5-65-1 spike that won leagues last year. In 12-team formats or deeper, that 20% shot at a top-five TE week outweighs the very real chance of a 1-4 clunker, particularly if you’re navigating byes or George Kittle injuries. Bench him only if your league is shallow or you already roster a set-and-forget top-six option.