Analyze Nick Chubb's matchup for week 11
A healthier Nick Chubb draws a Titans defense bleeding 130+ rush yards a game and 12 TDs on the season, making him a high-floor RB2 with RB1 upside in Week 11.
Tennessee’s front seven has been gashed by physical backs all year, ranking bottom-third in rushing yards and TDs allowed while missing tackles at one of the league’s highest rates. Their linebackers over-pursue, opening cut-back lanes that fit Chubb’s patient, one-cut style. Expect a positive game script for Houston—Titans’ sagging offense keeps games close—so the Texans can stick with a run-heavy script that should funnel 15-18 carries Chubb’s way.
After a slow post-injury start, Chubb has averaged 4.5 YPC for 214 yards in his last five games while his snap share and goal-line looks keep rising.
The macro view says start Chubb because the Titans simply can’t stop the run; they’ve allowed six different backs to top 75 yards and have given up 12 rushing scores through 10 weeks. Put a healthy, ascending runner behind Houston’s improving interior line and you get the best recipe for a season-defining 100-yard, multi-TD spike week. Micro-scheme details back it up: Tennessee runs a lot of wide-9 fronts that create back-side seams, and Chubb’s film the last month shows he’s finally trusting his rebuilt knee enough to plant and explode through those lanes. His 28 % missed-tackle rate over the last five games would lead the league if extrapolated, and the Titans whiff on 18 % of run tackles, fourth-worst in the NFL. Add in red-zone opportunity—Houston has 11 rushing TDs inside the 20 since Week 6—and you have volume plus efficiency plus touchdown equity. The lone worry is a sudden negative script, but Tennessee’s offense averages under 17 PPG, so odds tilt heavily toward a Texans lead and a clock-killing fourth quarter. Fire up Chubb as a locked-in RB2 who carries week-winning upside in a plus divisional matchup.