Analyze Michael Penix's matchup for week 11
Penix is reeling from a 42.9% completion dud, offers zero rushing juice, and draws a Panthers D that’s 12th-stingiest to QBs—he’s a sit in 1-QB and a desperate low-end QB2 only in Superflex.
Carolina just allowed Tyler Shough to pop, but they still rank 12th-fewest QB fantasy points and already blanked Atlanta 30-0 in Week 3. With the game in Atlanta, Penix gets a revenge narrative and a middling secondary, yet the Panthers’ front has stayed disciplined (only two 20-point QB games allowed since Week 5) and the Falcons’ banged-up line has surrendered 11 sacks the last three weeks.
After a 22.7-point eruption vs New England, Penix crashed to 10.9 fantasy points with a career-worst 42.9% completion rate and no rushing production for the sixth straight game.
Penix’s accuracy has fallen off a cliff—his 58.8% completion rate on the season sits 31st and his 10.9-point Week 10 dud continued a pattern of single-digit floors when the deep ball isn’t clicking. The Falcons’ offense has shifted to a run-heavy script the last two weeks (58% rush rate) to mask his woes, capping attempts at 28 and 30. Carolina plays a lot of Cover-3 and forces QBs underneath, yielding the 10th-lowest aDOT (6.4 air yards per attempt) and allowing only four 40-yard completions all year—exactly the type of coverage that has flustered Penix when Drake London is doubled on the go routes.
The offensive line is equally concerning: left tackle Troy Fautanu is questionable with a high-ankle sprain, and the unit has allowed a 23% pressure rate over the last three games. Penix’s pocket patience is still a work in progress: he’s taken 11 sacks in that span and has a 35.1 passer rating under pressure. Even if Carolina’s pass-rush (tied for 18th in sack rate) isn’t elite, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s second-half adjustments have held opposing QBs to the fifth-fewest second-half fantasy points, meaning any early success is unlikely to last.
Finally, the complete absence of rushing juice torpedoes his floor. Among 32 qualifying QBs, Penix ranks dead last in scramble rate (2.1%) and has two rushing first downs all year. In a week where Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, and Joe Flacco all offer 15-point ceilings plus some legs, Penix needs 250-plus yards and 2 TDs through the air just to creep into QB2 territory—something he’s done only twice in ten starts. Bench him everywhere you can.