Analyze Michael Mayer's matchup for week 11
Mayer has carved out a steady role as Geno Smith’s safety valve and red-zone threat; the Cowboys’ LB corps has been exploitable by second tight ends, making him a high-floor, TD-dependent TE2/FLEX play on Monday night.
Dallas sits mid-pack in TE scoring allowed (7.8 FPPG) but has leaked 54-500-3 to the position and struggles vs. 12-personnel looks—exactly the personnel the Raiders use to keep both Mayer and Brock Bowers on the field. With Cowboys safeties biting on play-action and LBs lacking consistent coverage, Mayer should run free on seams and underneath routes while Bowers draws the top coverage.
After blocking almost exclusively last year, Mayer has 18-155-1 on 27 targets in 2025 and saw a team-high 7 looks before his concussion; he’s logged 3 first-down grabs in the opener and scored in two of his last three healthy games.
Mayer’s transformation from afterthought to fantasy-viable has been the product of Chip Kelly’s scheme tweak and Geno Smith’s growing trust. No longer just an extra tackle, Mayer is now deployed as the move TE in 12 and 13 personnel, running option routes between the hashes where Smith looks when pressured. The coaching staff has specifically increased his red-zone usage—three of his seven targets versus Tennessee came inside the 20—demonstrating a commitment to manufacturing touches rather than relying on incidental volume.
The Cowboys’ defensive issues amplify Mayer’s utility. Dallas plays a heavy single-high shell to support their cornerbacks, leaving linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Damone Clark in isolated man or sink zones versus tight ends. When facing 12-personnel, the Cowboys often check to zone to protect their LBs, but that creates natural rubs and late-occupying zones for secondary tight ends. Mayer’s 4.65 speed and 6-4 frame allow him to sit down between the hashes against that zone or run the seam against safeties who have shown poor eye discipline on play-action. Expect Kelly to dial up motion that forces Vander Esch to carry Mayer across the formation, a matchup the Raiders have already exploited versus similarly built linebackers this season.
Primetime environment and game script also favor Mayer. The Raiders are 3-point underdogs in a game with a 47.5 total, projecting a competitive shootout on Monday Night Football. Historically, Carr-Carroll offenses lean on tight ends in home night games—Darren Waller averaged 8.3 targets in those spots from 2019-22—and Mayer has openly stated the crowd energy sharpens his focus. With Josh Jacobs likely active, play-action should be plentiful, keeping Mayer involved for 5-7 targets. His touchdown probability is boosted inside a Cowboys red-zone defense that has allowed a 67% completion rate to tight ends within the 20. While a 100-yard ceiling is unlikely, the combination of secure volume, positive matchup, and scoring opportunity locks him in as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 with 10-12 PPR upside in Week 11.