Analyze Matthew Stafford's matchup for week 11
Stafford has been unstoppable (20 TD, 0 INT in last six), but Seattle’s four-man pressure and blitz-averse scheme are the toughest test yet; start him anyway — the volume, weapons and game script keep his QB1 floor intact.
Seattle blitzes the least in football (14.6%) yet still ranks top-10 in pressure and sacks, relying on a deep four-man rush and seven-man coverage to shrink big-play chances. Stafford has eviscerated blitz-heavy looks this year; now he must win through timing and intermediate accuracy against tight coverage while the Rams’ 10th-ranked ground game tries to keep the front honest.
Historic heater — 13 TD vs blitz and four straight 4-TD games, 67 % completions, 1,688 yds, 20 TD, 0 INT over last six.
The chess match is straightforward: if Stafford can remain patient against Seattle’s two-shell looks and let Davante Adams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp win on isolation routes, the lack of blitz actually reduces turnover probability and keeps drives alive. Los Angeles’ offensive line has allowed only eight sacks during the hot stretch; keeping that rate against a top-five sack defense will decide whether he hits the upper end of his 290-yard, 3-TD ceiling or settles into a still-solid 260/2 floor. Game environment also helps — oddsmakers project one of Week 11’s highest totals in a contest critical for NFC West seeding, so drop-back volume should remain robust even if the Rams lean on Kyren Williams early to soften the line. Finally, Stafford’s 2025 home splits at SoFi (18 TD, 2 INT in five games) show the dome conditions accentuate his accuracy, mitigating weather-related downside that sometimes accompanies late-season outdoor matchups. Bottom line: the matchup lowers the mega-ceiling slightly, yet his arm talent, surrounding cast and projected pass volume keep him squarely in the top-five quarterback tier for fantasy purposes.