Analyze Ladd Mcconkey's matchup for week 11
McConkey is an auto-start this week: he’s averaged 8.5 targets and 73.5 yards with 3 TDs in his last four games, draws a Jaguars defense that’s 30th vs. the pass and bleeds points to slot receivers, and should see 9-11 targets with Keenan Allen banged up.
Jacksonville’s secondary is a get-right spot for any passing game—allowing 249.3 yards per game, 6.9 YPA, 21 TDs (2nd-most), and the 5th-most fantasy points to slot weapons where McConkey runs 60% of his routes. With both Chargers tackles on IR, Herbert will live in quick-game concepts that funnel volume to McConkey against a corner group headlined by Jourdan Lewis and rookies who have been routinely beaten by shifty route-runners.
Over the last four weeks McConkey has flipped from 43.5 YPG rookie to alpha WR1, posting 37-294-3 on 34 targets while leading the team in every receiving category and commanding 8 end-zone looks.
The convergence of usage, scheme, and matchup makes this McConkey’s potential breakout to league-winning status. Kellen Moore has re-oriented the offense around 3-WR sets and quick perimeter throws to offset the loss of both starting tackles, and no Charger has benefited more than McConkey, whose 2.34 yards per route run vs. man coverage ranks top-10 league-wide. Jacksonville plays man at the 7th-highest rate but allows a 113.2 passer rating when doing so; Jaguars slot corner Jourdan Lewis has surrendered 1.42 fantasy points per target and 3 TDs in his last 20 coverage snaps inside. Expect Moore to motion McConkey into stacks and rub concepts to isolate him on Lewis and rookie Jarrian Jones, who’s allowed 76% completions. Herbert has targeted McConkey on 32% of his red-zone throws the past month, and Jacksonville’s 4th-most TDs allowed to WRs inside the 20 caps it off. Even if game-script flips run-heavy, McConkey’s 5.2 YAC per reception keeps his floor high on quick hitters. The only real risk is a complete Chargers blowout where they lead by 21+ and salt away clock, but McConkey’s 75% snap share and involvement on early downs insulates him from that scenario. In all formats he’s a locked-in WR2 with easy WR1 ceiling; start him over every middling name like Cooper, Hopkins, or Samuel and enjoy what could be a 25-point eruption.