Analyze Kyle Pitts's matchup for week 11
Pitts has steadied into a 7–9-target role over the last three weeks, posting a career-best 83 % catch rate and growing timing with Michael Penix; Carolina’s middle-of-the-pack TE defense and the Falcons’ revenge narrative keep his floor safe, making him a low-end TE1 this week.
Atlanta hosts Carolina in a revenge game after being shut out 30-0 in Week 3, but the offense has since evolved—Pitts has 17 receptions on 20 targets in the last three contests. The Panthers allow 10.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends (16th), 70.4 yards and 5.6 catches, so the paper matchup is neutral; the real upgrade is Penix’s comfort targeting Pitts on intermediate in-breakers and the likelihood of extra volume if Drake London is limited.
Over the past month Pitts has led or co-led the team in receptions twice, converted 83 % of his 47 season targets, and averaged 8.8 yards per catch—his most consistent stretch since his rookie year.
The narrative has flipped since the Week 3 debacle. Penix is no longer sailing passes over the middle—Pitts’ target share has climbed to 24 % over the last three games and the Falcons have schemed more 12-personnel to keep him on the move instead of locked into vertical-only routes. Carolina runs a lot of Cover-3 and man-under, which leaves the deep seams and dig routes vulnerable; that plays directly to Pitts’ new usage. With the game in Atlanta and the Falcons needing to keep pace in the division, expect 7–9 targets again. The red-zone usage is still light—only five targets inside the 20—but the Panthers have allowed five TE touchdowns this year, so a dart in the back of the end zone is conceivable. Bottom line: Pitts’ floor is finally stable, the matchup is not prohibitive, and the game script should be neutral to positive, making him a locked-in starter in 12-team formats and a great DFS salary-cap relief play.