Analyze Kyle Monangai's matchup for week 11
Monangai’s bruising, tackle-breaking style and Minnesota’s 30th-ranked RB defense create a perfect storm for 12-15 touches and a strong shot at 15+ PPR points, making him a clear FLEX starter this week.
The Vikings have allowed 25-plus PPR points to opposing backfields four times and rank 30th in fantasy points to RBs, with gaping interior lanes that fit Monangai’s downhill, pinball running. Cold, windy conditions at Soldier Field should keep the game script run-heavy, and Chicago’s improving line has been generating push between the tackles—exactly where Monangai thrives.
Since Week 9 he’s handled 26 carries for 176 yards and eight red-zone touches when Swift was out, then out-carried Swift 33 % to 62 % while scoring in Week 10, cementing a 12-15-touch role with goal-line upside.
Monangai’s emergence is less about flash and more about sustainable efficiency: 4.6 YPC when sharing the backfield, zero negative runs on 26 carries versus Cincinnati, and a compact 5’8”/211 frame built for November trench warfare. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has openly embraced a hot-hand approach, so a single explosive carry could vault the rookie into 15-plus-touch territory against a Vikings front that has surrendered rushing touchdowns in seven of ten games. Brian Flores’s pressure-heavy scheme leaves interior gaps unaccounted for, and Monangai’s decisive one-cut style is tailor-made to exploit those creases before safeties can fill. The 35-degree wind gusts forecast at Soldier Field further tilt play-calling toward the ground, raising both touch probability and touchdown equity. While D’Andre Swift still leads the backfield, the snap split has tightened to 61 %–39 % and Monangai dominates inside-the-10 work, giving him a legitimate 60 % chance of finding the end zone. Combine that with Minnesota’s league-worst 5.2 yards per carry allowed over the last month and you have a floor of 60 rushing yards plus a score—good for mid-range RB2 numbers in a week when many fantasy owners are desperate for healthy bodies. The risk is a full-blown committee that caps him at ten touches, but even in that scenario the matchup is soft enough to turn limited volume into 10–12 points. In 12-team leagues he should be started over touchdown-dependent WR3s or backs facing top-ten run defenses, and he offers league-winning upside if the game script turns favorable early.