Analyze Khalil Shakir's matchup for week 11
Shakir faces a Bucs defense that bleeds production to slot receivers (122.8 passer rating allowed) and has a locked-in 6-plus-target floor in an offense projected for 28-30 points—fire him up as a high-floor WR2 in all PPR lineups.
Tampa Bay enters Week 11 ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 8th-worst in passer rating surrendered to slot targets, making Shakir’s primary 68-percent-inside alignment a direct path to production. Buffalo’s heavy implied total and likely positive game script keep the pass game humming, while potential wind at home funnels targets toward Shakir’s short-area routes that have already produced 11 grabs on 15 looks through three 2025 games.
After a 76-catch, 821-yard 2024 breakout, Shakir has reeled in 11 of 15 targets for 121 yards and a score this year, posting 6-plus catches in four straight healthy contests and 14 of his last 15 overall.
Khalil Shakir has morphed into Josh Allen’s security blanket, running 68 percent of his routes from the slot and converting at a 73 percent clip this season. His 8-plus yards-after-catch average turns quick throws into chain-moving production, insulating him from negative game scripts or blowouts—exactly the profile that shreds a Tampa Bay defense allowing the 8th-highest passer rating to inside receivers. With wind likely to shorten passing angles in Orchard Park, Allen’s willingness to pepper his most reliable intermediate target keeps Shakir’s floor above six receptions for a fifth consecutive game.
The Buccaneers’ primary slot corner duo has surrendered 15.3 YPR and 4 TDs on throws inside 15 yards, numbers that align perfectly with Shakir’s aDOT and red-area usage. When Buffalo reached the red zone last year, Shakir commanded a 24 percent target share—second on the team—highlighting touchdown upside that is understated in his modest 2025 line. Even if the Bills lean on the ground game while protecting a lead, Shakir’s snap rate (87 percent in 2025) and first-read status on quick timing routes keep him involved, making a complete zero nearly impossible.
Fantasy managers should view Shakir as a volume-based WR2 whose target floor rivals that of higher-named wideouts but comes with far less volatility. PPR formats especially reward his six-catch baseline, and the matchup tilts everything in his favor—Tampa has allowed 34-plus slot PPR points in two of its last four road games. Expect another six or seven grabs, 65-75 yards, and a coin-flip shot at a score; start him confidently over boom-or-bust options who could leave you with a 2-point dud.