Analyze Keon Coleman's matchup for week 11
Despite a mouth-watering size mismatch versus Tampa Bay’s young corners, Coleman’s plummeting yards-per-catch (9.8), volatile target share and two-TD-in-eight-weeks profile make him a bench-only play in standard 12-team formats.
Tampa Bay enters Week 11 16th in passing yards allowed and 68% completion rate to 6-2-plus receivers vs. second-year CB Zyon McCollum—an inviting paper matchup for the 6-4 Coleman. Add a clear-sky, mid-70s day and a Bills offense projected as road favorites and the stage looks set for a ceiling game. The problem is usage: Coleman has been funneled into short-area, possession duty (9.8 YPC, down from 19.2 as a rookie) and his targets have swung from 11 in the opener to multiple two-target weeks, capping both floor and ceiling.
Career-best route nuance and a 57-target, 84% snap pace through eight games, but production has cratered since his 8-112-1 opener; he’s averaged 28.8 yards per game and hasn’t topped 25 yards on a single catch since Week 1.
The disconnect between opportunity and outcome sits at the heart of Coleman’s 2025 tape. While the Bills remain committed to his 6-4, 215-pound frame—lining him up on the X-iso side in 78% of snaps—defenses have squeezed his vertical tree by cloud-coverage brackets and late safety rotation, forcing Josh Allen to check down to Coleman on hitches and option routes. Those looks have replaced the 12-15 air-yard posts that produced 14.0 aDOT as a rookie, driving his yards-per-catch under 10 and producing only two scores on 57 targets. Even in a plus matchup like McCollum, who surrenders 0.32 fantasy points per route, Coleman must first prove he can earn high-value targets rather than low-aDOT scraps. Until that usage corrects—and it could in December when cold weather mandates more condensed passing—he profiles as a touchdown-or-bust WR4. Sit him in standard 12-team leagues for higher-floor options (Jakobi Meyers, Jordan Addison) but keep rostered in 14-team or dynasty formats where his red-zone role and latent deep-play juice could re-emerge once Allen and OC Joe Brady re-expand the route tree.