Analyze Juwan Johnson's matchup for week 11
Juwan Johnson is a locked-in TE2/streamer this week: the depleted Saints passing attack funnels targets his way, Cleveland is a neutral matchup (21st vs TEs), and he’s posted 13-163-1 over his last three games with three red-zone looks already in 2024.
The Browns have allowed 54-376-5 to tight ends through nine games (7.6 FPPG, 21st), putting them squarely in the “neutral” tier. With New Orleans likely playing from behind and missing Rashid Shaheed, Johnson should operate as Derek Carr’s (or whoever is under center) primary safety valve and red-zone option. Cleveland’s linebackers have struggled versus athletic move-TEs, and Johnson’s 6'4" frame gives him a leverage advantage in the slot and inside the 20. Game-script risk exists if the Saints fall way behind and abandon short-area passing, but the matchup is neither a green-light smash nor a prohibitive fade.
Career-best 50-548-3 line through Week 10; 13 receptions, 163 yards and a TD over last three games while seeing consistent targets regardless of Taysom Hill/Foster Moreau health.
Johnson’s recent surge isn’t a small-sample mirage—it’s the by-product of opportunity meeting expanded usage. Since the Shaheed trade the Saints have targeted the TE position on 29% of passes (fourth-highest rate), and Johnson has handled 78% of those routes. His 2.15-yard average separation ranks top-12 among TEs with 30+ targets, and he’s converted 5 of 7 red-zone looks into scores or first downs. Cleveland’s primary TE coverage has come from safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill, who’ve allowed a collective 128.3 passer rating when targeted in man/zone combo looks—exactly the coverage Johnson exploits on option routes inside the 10. Even if the Saints’ offensive line crumbles, Johnson’s average depth of target (5.8 yards) keeps him tethered to quick timing throws, giving him a safe 8-point floor in PPR formats. Touchdown equity pushes his median projection to 12 points, with a realistic ceiling of 18 should he cash in another red-zone look—making him an easy plug-and-play for teams navigating byes or injuries.