Analyze Justin Herbert's matchup for week 11
Herbert has averaged 314 yards and 2.25 TD passes over his last four while regaining his legs, and a Jaguars defense that’s coughed up 271 yards, 11 TDs, and multiple scores in 6 of its last 7 games is next on the docket—fire him up as a confident QB1.
Jacksonville enters Week 11 hemorrhaging fantasy production to quarterbacks, ranking bottom-10 in points allowed and giving up 271 passing yards a contest over the past five weeks while recording only seven sacks in that span. Their secondary has been especially generous on deep balls—exactly where Herbert has thrived since rookie Ladd McConkey emerged as a true vertical threat. With the Chargers throwing 38 times a game since Week 8 and the Jags conceding multiple touchdown passes in six of their last seven, the matchup sets up as a ceiling-friendly environment in what should be a pass-heavy, positive game script for Los Angeles.
Over his last four games Herbert is averaging 314 passing yards and a 9:3 TD-to-INT ratio while adding a season-best 62 rushing yards last week, signaling a full return to mobile, aggressive form under an offense that’s shifted from run-heavy to 38 pass attempts per game.
Herbert’s renaissance has coincided with a philosophical pivot from Jim Harbaugh: the Bolts have gone from grinding clock to letting their franchise quarterback air it out, and the results speak for themselves. The offensive line has quietly gelled, surrendering just five sacks over the past three contests, giving Herbert the clean pockets he needs to showcase elite arm strength and improved anticipation. McConkey’s ascension (94 yards per game the last five) has replaced the target vacuum left by Keenan Allen, while a sneaky 6.2 yards-per-carry average over the past three games adds a rushing floor Herbert lacked during his early-season ankle woes. Expect Los Angeles to keep the pedal down with playoff seeding in play, exploiting a Jaguars pass rush that can’t generate pressure and a secondary that’s allowed completions of 40+ yards in four straight. The only real concern is positive game-script regression if the Chargers jump out big, but even then Herbert has shown the mobility to tack on rushing production. All arrows point to a ceiling week for fantasy’s post-hype QB.