Analyze Justice Hill's matchup for week 11
Justice Hill has devolved into a special-teams afterthought behind Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell, rendering a tasty Cleveland matchup meaningless; expect 3-5 touches and zero fantasy upside, making him an easy bench in all formats.
Cleveland’s 27th-ranked rushing defense has surrendered 494 yards and 3 TDs to RBs this season, theoretically creating a plus-on-paper matchup. Unfortunately, Hill’s snap share has cratered from 45% in Week 1 to a season-low 11 in Week 9, with Keaton Mitchell now the clear No. 2. The Ravens will ride Henry early and use Mitchell for explosive change-of-pace work, leaving Hill as the third man out and unlikely to see more than a handful of touches even in a positive game script.
Hill’s role has evaporated—17 carries/92 yards and 20 catches/157 yards through eight games—while his snap rate keeps shrinking and Mitchell’s big-play ability has overtaken him on the depth chart.
The Ravens’ backfield hierarchy is now crystallized: Derrick Henry dominates early-down work, Keaton Mitchell handles the change-of-pace and passing-down snaps, and Justice Hill is an ancillary piece whose usage trends toward special teams. Hill’s 5.4 YPC efficiency is hollow because the volume has disappeared; he logged only two touches in Week 10 while Mitchell ripped off a 22-yard run on four carries, cementing the pecking order. Coaching staff comments and snap distributions over the past month indicate this is a permanent arrangement, not a temporary slump.
Even a theoretically soft matchup against Cleveland’s porous front seven cannot overcome usage reality. The Browns allow the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs, but most of that damage has been absorbed by lead backs who see 15-plus touches; Hill is projected for 3-5 scrimmage touches at best. Game script won’t help—if Baltimore builds a lead, Henry will grind clock, and if they fall behind, Mitchell’s pass-catching skill set keeps Hill off the field. Touchdown dependence is his only path to relevance, and with red-zone opportunities funneled through Henry and Lamar Jackson, Hill’s odds of scoring are lottery-ticket thin.
Fantasy managers should treat Hill as a roster-clogger rather than a stash. In 12-team leagues he belongs on waivers, and in deeper formats he’s behind any number of backup backs who would inherit standalone value with one injury (e.g., Ty Chandler, Braelon Allen). For Week 11, start only if you’re desperate for a zero-floor dart throw; otherwise keep him glued to your bench or the waiver wire and stream almost any other back with a clearer path to 8-10 touches.