Analyze Josh Jacobs's matchup for week 11
Jacobs has scored in eight straight games and leads the NFL with 22 carries inside the five-yard line; even with his snaps dipping below 35% last week, Green Bay’s league-high 53% neutral-situation run rate keeps him an every-week, touchdown-driven RB1.
The Eagles enter allowing 4.6 yards per carry and the fourth-most rushing TDs (11) this year, and Green Bay’s commitment to feeding Jacobs at the stripe—he owns 38% of all NFL carries from the 1-yard line—sets up another multi-score ceiling. With Jordan Love content to lean on play-action off heavy run looks, Jacobs projects for 16-18 touches and a 60-70% snap share in a positive game script, enough volume to pay off his touchdown floor against a defense that just surrendered three rushing scores to the Giants last week.
Five-game TD streak with 10 total scores; snap share has fallen three straight weeks (55% → 53% → 32%) but fantasy output steady at 14.8 PPG thanks to league-leading red-zone usage.
Jacobs’ 2025 script has flipped from volume back to vulture, and it’s working. Since Week 7 he’s averaging only 14.3 carries yet punching in a TD every 10.8 touches because the Packers run the ball more than anyone when games are within one score. That 53% neutral-situation run rate is six points higher than the next team, insulating Jacobs from negative game flow and keeping him on the field inside the 10, where he’s converted eight of his 22 five-yard-and-in carries. Even with Emmanuel Wilson siphoning 20-25% of the snaps, Jacobs’ 1.9-yard average distance to the end zone on those carries is the shortest in the league, giving him a 60% chance of scoring in any given week according to FantasyLabs’ rushing TD model.
Philadelphia’s defense bolsters the appeal. They’ve given up 11 rushing touchdowns through nine games, are missing interior run-stuffer Jordan Davis (ankle), and have allowed a league-high five scores from inside the 5 over the past month. Linebackers Nicholas Morrow and Zack Baun both grade below 55 against the run per PFF, and the Eagles’ lighter boxes (five or fewer defenders on 62% of opponent runs) play directly into Jacobs’ north-south style. Add in a Packers offensive line that ranks top-10 in adjusted line yards and you have the perfect recipe for another two-TD day, even on 15 carries.
The elephant in the room is the snap count—32% in Week 10 is alarmingly low for an RB1—but context matters. Green Bay was up 21-3 by halftime, Jacobs was coming off a calf tweak, and Wilson handled garbage time. In a projected one-score game against Philadelphia, Matt LaFleur has no incentive to deviate from his touchdown-centric blueprint. Expect 16-18 carries, 3-4 targets, and a 60-65% snap share, numbers that historically yield 17-20 fantasy points against a defense bleeding red-zone rushing production. Bench him only if you roster one of the four true workhorses seeing 80-plus percent of snaps; otherwise ride the streak.