Analyze Josh Downs's matchup for week 11
Josh Downs sits in Week 11 because Indianapolis is on bye, but stash him now: he’s riding a three-game TD streak, owns an 18% target share, and draws a 4-star slot-friendly Chiefs matchup in Week 12, making him a high-floor FLEX with WR3 upside the rest of the way.
Downs’ Week 11 is moot—the Colts are off—but the slot specialist has become Daniel Jones’ red-zone darling, converting three straight games inside the 20 while operating at a 68.6% catch rate on 51 targets. In Week 12 he’ll face a Kansas City defense that has allowed opposing WRs to outperform their seasonal baseline, particularly when working inside where Downs lines up 70% of the time. The Chiefs’ sub-par nickel coverage and the Colts’ balanced attack should keep his 18% target share concentrated in high-leverage situations, giving him a safe PPR floor and touchdown-based ceiling.
After a quiet 6.4-point average in three of his first four games, Downs erupted for four consecutive double-digit outputs highlighted by a three-week touchdown tear that vaulted him from touchdown-dependent WR4 to weekly FLEX consideration.
The third-year receiver’s second-half surge is no fluke—his red-zone usage has spiked in tandem with Daniel Jones’ 101.7 passer rating since Week 5, and the Colts now actively scheme 11-personnel looks to get Downs isolated against linebackers and safeties inside. While he cedes two-WR-set snaps to Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, his slot-only role keeps his target quality high; 14 of his 35 catches have moved the chains or scored, explaining the modest yardage (8.9 YPR) yet bankable fantasy weeks. Expect a similar script versus Kansas City in Week 12: the Chiefs surrender the league’s sixth-highest slot catch rate and have allowed seven different WR touchdowns over their last four games. Downs won’t out-target Pittman, but he can out-produce his seasonal average if Indianapolis reaches the red zone 3–4 times, a realistic outcome against a KC defense that’s middle-of-the-pack in points per drive. Down the stretch, schedule-neutral scoring expectations slot him as a low-end WR3 in PPR and a top-30 play in any matchup where the Colts are projected for 24-plus points—making him a priority bench stash and a confident FLEX roll-out starting in Week 12.