Analyze Jordan Addison's matchup for week 11
Addison’s 27 % catch rate with J.J. McCarthy is scary, but Chicago’s perimeter-friendly defense and his 8-162-1 revenge-game history keep him in low-end FLEX consideration for desperate managers.
The Bears enter Week 11 hemorrhaging 31.8 PPR points per game to wide receivers (3rd-most) and have surrendered the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter WRs—exactly where Addison lines up. Minnesota’s passing attack should attack a secondary that’s already allowed 11 completions of 40+ yards, and Addison’s 15.1 aDOT gives him the vertical profile to exploit those breakdowns.
Over the last six games Addison has cleared 50 yards only twice and is riding a four-game sub-50-yard skid, culminating in a 3-35-0 clunker on 11 targets in Week 10.
Addison’s chemistry with J.J. McCarthy is broken right now—an 11-target, 3-catch outing produces a 27 % catch rate that screams miscommunication rather than coverage. The underlying metrics aren’t much kinder: he’s seen a 22 % target share over the last month yet has turned that into just 1.38 yards per route run, 82nd among 93 qualifying WRs. Still, the Bears’ perimeter corners (Jaylon Johnson & Kindle Vildor) have allowed a collective 123.1 passer rating on balls 15+ air yards downfield, and Addison’s 4.39 speed gives Minnesota the clear matchup edge on paper. Kevin O’Connell has historically funneled 25 % of his deep looks to the second-year wideout, so the volume will be there; the question is whether McCarthy can deliver catchable balls. Expect 6–8 targets, a 50 % catch rate, and a range of 8–18 fantasy points depending on whether one of those targets finds pay-dirt. Treat him as a high-variance FLEX who swings weeks but can also sink them.